Handicapping Articles

HAPPY DERBY DAY ! Today is the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby and all the pomp and circumstance that goes along with it. The forecast for rain once again on Derby Day so it looks like an off track at Churchill Downs. Trivia Question: D. Wayne Lukas has his fifty-first Kentucky Derby starter in the form of American Promise – it’s a race he has won four times. How many active trainers have a graded stakes race at Churchill Downs named for them? D. Wayne, that’s who. Who was Lukas’s first Derby winner? Race 11 The Turf Classic – Grade I One Mile and One Furlong on…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/2/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  12       Race overview  A seemingly average AOC for 3up at 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  It doesn’t look overly heated early, as there aren’t many true speed horses signed on, so being able to lay close seems imperative.      Trends  The main track had a very forward feel to it Tuesday and Wednesday, so continue to follow how the week progresses, as things have been known to be a paved speedy highway on the dirt during Derby Week,…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/1/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  A weak 50k conditioned N3L for 3up at 6 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  It looks hot and contested, as there are more than a few who want to be involved early and often.      Trends  The main track had a very forward feel to it on Tuesday, and while it’s just one day, it’s worth following how the week progresses, as things have been known to be a paved speedy highway on the…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/30/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  A solid renewal of the 200k Isaac Murphy Marathon for 4up at 1 ½ miles on the main track.       Pace  For a marathon, it actually seems honest, as there are more than a few who want to be close early, though how fast they’ll actually be going remains to be seen.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #5 LAMBETH (2-1): The favorite took his game to a new level in his last start when he…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/26/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  5       Race overview  A modest 20k N3L for 3up at 1 1/16 miles.       Pace  There’s not much here, especially considering several look like one-run plodders, so tactical speed, at the very least, is preferred.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #6 FORGE IN FIRE (7-2): Stalker should trip out nicely here on or just off the early lead, is much better on dirt than Tapeta, and has a local main trick win as well.      Bet Types   …

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/25/25      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  8       Race overview  A sharp renewal of the G3 Bewitch for 4upfm at 1 ½ mile on turf.       Pace  It’s a turf route, so expect things to be tepid early and turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  The turf isn’t used enough to get a true feel, though on the whole, it’s much more fair than say a GP or SA, which are always going to cater to early speed types.      Best Play  #2…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/24/25      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  9       Race overview  A seemingly modest MS for fm3up at 1-mile on the turf.       Pace  It should be honest enough, as there are a few who want to be close early, along with a slew of first-time starters as well.      Trends  The turf isn’t used enough to get a true feel, though on the whole, it’s much more fair than say a GP or SA, which are always going to cater to early speed types.      Best Play …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 4/23/25 Featured track Keeneland Race number 3 Race overview A modest 50k MCL for 3up at 1 1/8 miles. Pace Things look slow early, especially at a trip that will be a stretch for many, so having a stalking gear seems preferred. Trends The main track seemed to have a slight towards speed last week, but hardly anything too overwhelming, and with three days off, it’s worth paying attention to how things play out. Best Play #7 SPURGEON (2-1): MSW dropper was given seven tries in the big leagues and couldn’t break through while running underneath, so this move makes…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/19/25      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  5       Race overview  A very watered down 40k N2L for 3up at 6 ½ Fs.       Pace  It doesn’t look overly heated, as there aren’t too many who want to be close early, so a tactical gear seems preferred.       Trends  Speed and the inside seemed a slight bit better during the first several days of the meet, though nothing out of the ordinary either.      Best Play  #7 TOP GUN ROCKET (9-5): Stiff class dropper also goes turf-to-dirt and…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/18/25      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  7       Race overview  A modest—even for this level—restricted MSW for 3yofs at 6Fs.       Pace  It doesn’t look overly heated early, as there’s no pure sprint speed on paper, so having the ability to lay close early seems a plus.      Trends  Speed and the inside seemed a slight bit better during the first several days of the meet, though nothing out of the ordinary either.      Best Play  #11 TRUE PASSION (9-2): OP invader chased and tired in an…