Handicapping Articles

Happy Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Day!  Fantastic card at the Big A today with five graded stakes races headlined by the Grade I Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. The Joe Hirsch has only five entries plus two MTOs, but it’s a very strong field that includes the defending champion (Far Bridge), the winners of the Sword Dancer (El Cordobes) and the United Nations (Redistricting) along with the two time Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Rebel’s Romance.  Trivia Question: Which track hosted the initial running of the Woodward Stakes?  Race 5 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic – Grade I  One Mile and One Half on the Inner Turf for Three Year Olds…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/27/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  1       Race overview  A watered down restricted MSW for 3up at 6 furlongs.       Pace  It could potentially fast, even with a short field, as there is fresh speed from #3, and #5 really wants to motor early.      Trends  a muddy main track played towards speedy types Wednesday, while a fast, drying out track was very fair Thursday night.      Best Play  #2 SHELLAC (4-1): Arguably the worst ML of the meet (which has been filled with…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 9/26/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 8   Race overview A modest 80k N2L claimer for 3up at 1-mile on the main track.   Pace It looks honest, as #3 wants to be in front, and #2 just wired to break his maiden, so he should be forwardly placed too. Trends A fast main track continued to play very fair throughout the week, with winners coming from everywhere. Best Play #1 ESCALATION CLAUSE (9-2): Former Brown runner is now with a Delaware Park-based Compton barn that is 20% on the year, and the fact he ships…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/25/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  2       Race overview  An extremely weak 16k claimer for fm3up at 6 ½ furlongs.        Pace  It looks honest enough, as there are more than a few who want to be on the lead or pressing things early.      Trends  A fast main track continued to play very fair throughout the week, with winners coming from everywhere.      Best Play  #7 JUST AN OPINION (5-2): Well-drawn runner has been facing better, drew perfectly, lays over these on paper,…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/24/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4       Race overview  An extremely watered down 20k MCL for 3up at 6 furlongs.        Pace  It looks honest enough, as there are more than a few who want to be close and involved early on.      Trends  A fast main track continued to play very fair throughout the week, with winners coming from everywhere.      Best Play  #6 SHADOW CAST (2-1): MSW dropper also goes turf-to-dirt, drew perfectly, has the speed to be on or just off…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 9/21/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 6 Race overview A meek 20k MCL for fm3up at 6 furlongs. Pace It’s a full field, with more than a few who want to be close early, so things look honest up front. Trends A fast main track has played very fair when it’s been fast, including Wednesday and Thursday, with winners coming from everywhere. Best Play #3 POINTSETMATCH (7-2): MSW runner also gets off the cow pasture of Kentucky Downs, has the speed to be on or just off the early pace, and seems primed on the biggest…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/20/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  9       Race overview  A strong renewal of the G3 Dogwood for 3yofs at 7 furlongs.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as both #1 Echo Sound (9-5) and #8 Mega Mil (20-1) want to motor early.      Trends  A fast main track has played very fair when it’s been fast, including Wednesday and Thursday, with winners coming from everywhere.      Best Play  #4 RAGTIME (2-1): Another terrible ML, as she just drubbed #1 in the G1 Test at…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/19/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  6       Race overview  A wildly deep and competitive 16k claimer for fm3up at 6 ½ Fs.       Pace  There’s not much here, which means #6 ALTERED SHOT (5-1) should enjoy a big tactical edge, either on, or just off the early pace.      Trends  A fast main track played very fair the first three days of the meet (it was sloppy Sunday), and again on Wednesday as well.      Best Play  #6 ALTERED SHOT (5-1): Class dropper and…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/18/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  3       Race overview  A deep and competitive 62.5k claimer for 3up at 7 ½ furlongs.       Pace  There’s very little here on paper, with no true sprint speed, so being able to lay close—at a very tricky distance too—seems key.      Trends  A fast main track played very fair the first three days of the meet (it was sloppy Sunday), with winners coming from everywhere.      Best Play  #8 GUNNER BAY (5-2): Tactical sort has been running fast…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/17/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4       Race overview  A deep and competitive 16k claimer for 3up at 1-mile.       Pace  Things look on the tepid side early, as there’s not a lot of burners in here, and there are several with no speed at all, so a tactical gear will surely come in handy.      Trends  A fast main track played very fair the first three days of the meet (it was sloppy Sunday), with winners coming from everywhere.      Best Play  #7…