Handicapping Articles

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  7/14/24      Featured track  Saratoga       Race number  3       Race overview  An NYB N1X for 3up at 5 ½ Fs on the Mellon Turf.       Pace  It’s a turf sprint, so things figure honest and contested up front.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #7 FINAL DENILE (3-1) (turf only): Lightly raced runner broke 11-of-12 in his turf bow but ran on nicely to be a close 2nd, should be closer early today, and still has a world of upside off that.      Bet Types    Aggressive WP bet and…

Happy Diana Day!  Chad Brown has won the Diana seven of the past eight years and with five entered in today’s edition he looks to continue his dominance in this Grade I, but his quintet faces some tough ones.   Many of the turf stakes at this meet will feature Chad Brown vs. Charlie Appleby showdowns. Today we get the first taste of that matchup in the Kelso Stakes where Chad has Carl Spackler and Appleby has Mysterious Night. So far this year in North American Appleby trainees are winning at a 30% clip and 74% have hit the board. Godolphin have made a bigger commitment to American racing…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  7/13/24      Featured track  Saratoga       Race number  7       Race overview  A (likely) deep and competitive 2yo MSW at 5 ½ furlongs on the main track.       Pace  Expect things to be heated up front, especially with a slew of firsters from ace connections.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #9 INNOVATOR (4-1): Lukas charge worked strongly for his debut then never had a chance, with a nightmare trip, though he still showed some fight in the lane, and with that behind him now, it’s all systems go today.   …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  7/11/24      Featured track  Saratoga       Race number  8       Race overview  A deep and competitive OC/SAL for 3upfm going 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as more than a few have shown early foot and the affinity to be involved early on.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #7 SPRING MAGIC (4-1) (turf only): SA invader is now also with Morey, who is 25% with newcomers, and has Irad named, so you know there’s intent here, so improvement is expected, on a runner…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 7/12/24 Featured track Saratoga Race number 8   Race overview A strong renewal of the Wilton for 3yofs going a tricky distance/layout of 1-mile on the main track.   Pace It looks quite honest, as more than a few want to be involved early and often. Trends N/A Best Play #1 MISS JUSTIFY (3-1): Pletcher miss got untracked at CD, when she showed toughness early when dueling early on, only to pull clear in the lane, and this post is perfect, plus she doesn’t have to be on the lead, and owns a huge tactical edge over the ML favorite…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  7/7/24      Featured track  Belmont at Aqueduct      Race number  7       Race overview  A deep and competitive NYB N1X for 3upfm going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track.       Pace  There’s very little here, which means it should be a tight group throughout, and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #8 CAPITAL GAL (5-1): Turf-to-dirt miss aired at FL two-back, and while it may have come from nowhere, it puts her in the mix here, her tactical speed will play, and there’s no…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  7/6/24      Featured track  Belmont at Aqueduct      Race number  4       Race overview  A compact field of 3yof 50k claimers going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track.       Pace  There’s plenty of it on the inside, which suggests this could fall apart in the lane.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #5 LOW SOCIETY (2-1): Rice charge will run on the main for the first time since the claim, and note she won over the track three-back, so there’s a chance she moves way up here, with a…

Happy Belmont Derby Invitational Day!  There are four graded stakes at the Big A including two Grade Is, the Belmont Derby and the Belmont Oaks. These are the first of three legs of the Turf Triple and Turf Tiara for three year old colts and fillies respectively. It’s surprising to see only a field of five for Belmont Derby given the $750k purse, but it’s a very competitive field where any of the starters could win.   Trivia question: Through the first six months of 2024 which trainer has won the most Grade Is?    Race 6 – The Belmont Derby Invitational – Grade I  One Mile and Three…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  7/5/24      Featured track  Belmont at Aqueduct      Race number  9       Race overview  A deep and competitive NYB MSW for 3upfm going 1 1/16 miles on the turf.       Pace  It looks on the tepid side, as there aren’t too many entered who have shown any early foot, so expect a bunched group and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #6 SUMMER WHIRL (3-1) (turf only): Motion charge broke last and was behind the eight-ball in her debut but still ran on nicely, so…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  7/4/24      Featured track  Belmont at Aqueduct      Race number  5       Race overview  A solid OC/SAL for 3upfm going 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here to prevent #3 Enigmatic (2-1) from making the lead and widening from there.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #3 ENIGMATIC (2-1): Expected Lone F got to Rice and aired on the stiff drop, now rises in class and into a spot where she can’t be claimed, and has the speed to control things early, especially since one of the…