Handicapping Articles

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/30/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4       Race overview  A very weak 30k MCL for fm3up at 5 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as it’s a dirt sprint, and there are more than a few who want to be close or involved early on.      Trends  The main track continues to be on the fair side, with all types of running styles having a fair go of it.      Best Play  #2 TROUBLER (3-1): MSW dropper hasn’t been…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/29/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4       Race overview  A competitive 80k N2L for fm3up at 1 1/16 miles on the turf.       Pace  It actually looks pretty honest, as there are more than a few entered who want to be involved early, or close throughout.       Trends  They just aren’t running enough on the turf to have any real feel, but on a whole, it plays much fairer than the speedier courses you see at GP or SA.      Best Play  #9 SASSY PRINCESS…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/26/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  2       Race overview  A very weak (even for this level) 12.5k MCL for 3up at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  There’s really none here, not to mention a ton of one-run deep closers, which gives #8 PROMISSIONE (5-2) a huge edge.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit more forward last week, but on a whole, when fast, it’s been fair more often than not.      Best Play  #8 PROMISSIONE (5-2): Pace…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/25/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  5       Race overview  A seemingly meek 20k MCL for 3up at 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  It’s a full field, with more than a few who want to be involved early, so things look honest up front.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit more forward last week, but on a whole, when fast, it’s been fair more often than not.      Best Play  #8 OUTDOOR CAT (5-2): Stiff dropper didn’t fire after a…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/24/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4       Race overview  A solid 25k claimer for fm4up at 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there are more than a few who want to be involved early on.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit more forward last week, but on a whole, when fast, it’s been fair more often than not.      Best Play  #9 OFF RAMP (3-1): Versatile sort has been on Tapeta, turf, and dirt this…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/23/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4       Race overview  A very weak MSW for 2yos at 5Fs on the turf.       Pace  On paper there’s not much here, with the obvious exception of   #7 OUTFIELDER (5-2), who looks like a pure speedball (in the AM) for ace 2yo debut trainer Ward.      Trends  They haven’t run too many turf races, but over a firm course last week, speed held well in the sprints.      Best Play  #7 OUTFIELDER (5-2) (turf or dirt): Ward firster cost…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/22/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  5       Race overview  A restricted MSW for fm3up at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  There’s little to none here, so anyone with some tactical speed should be elevated, and expect a bunched group on the far turn.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit more forward last week, though it continues, on a whole, to play fair when it’s been fast.      Best Play  #5 LOLO LE PLUME (5-2): Open MSW runner…

Happy Preakness Day!  We won’t have a Triple Crown winner this year as Sovereignty’s connections have passed on the Preakness. But this sets up the potential for a real nice Belmont where the Derby and Preakness winners could face off for the divisional lead. As for today, we have a very interesting Preakness with three Derby runners coming back, several stakes winners who didn’t make the Derby, a new shooter from Baffert, an overseas shipper, and a local hero. THAT is quite a collection.   Trivia Question: Why is Pimlico nicknamed “Old Hilltop”?  Race 12 The Dinner Party – Grade III  One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/17/25      Featured track  Pimlico       Race number  9       Race overview  A deep and competitive renewal of the Jim McKay Turf Sprint for 3up at 5 furlongs.       Pace  There’s a ton here, and with a course that could have some give to it, this could very well fall apart in the lane.      Trends  N/A – There was rain early in the week, and it could continue throughout the weekend, so check how the turf is playing on Thursday and Friday, and early on the Saturday card as…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/16/25      Featured track  Pimlico       Race number  13       Race overview  A competitive renewal of the G2 Black Eyed Susan for 3yo fillies at 1 1/8 miles on the main track.       Pace  There’s little to none here on paper, and with this a taxing distance for a lot of these, expect things to be slow early and turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A – With the meet just starting there’s nothing to go by here, though pay attention to how things played Thursday…