Handicapping Articles

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/16/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  9       Race overview  A strong AOC for 3up going 5 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s more than enough here, especially down inside, so a stalking gear seems like a good asset to have.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best Play  #4 PRO OXIDENT (3-1): Asmussen claim rises off a…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/15/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  9       Race overview  A competitive 50k starter-allowance claimer for 3upfm going 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest, as more than a few want to be involved early on.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best Play  #1GENEROUS LOVER (2-1): Dominant N2L winner now goes off the claim for Sharp,…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/14/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  7       Race overview  A compact and competitive 40k claimer for 4up going 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s none here, which means #3 MONEY RUN (3-1) looks loose and lonely on an uncontested lead.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best Play  #3 MONEY RUN (3-1): Expected Lone F flew and tired late…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/13/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  6       Race overview  A solid 30k claimer for 3upfm going 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s little here, which should allow #2 CRACKALACKING (9-2) to set up shop on what could be a loose and lonely lead.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best Play  #2 CRACKALACKING (9-2): Speedster should be loose…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/12/24      Featured track  Churchill Downs      Race number  4       Race overview  A deep and competitive 20k claimer for 4up going 6Fs on the main.       Pace  There’s plenty here, as more than a few want to be involved early and often on the front end.      Trends  The main track has been remarkably consistent all meet, with few, if any path biases, and all running styles having a fair go of it more often than not.      Best Play  #4 G T FIVE HUNDRED (4-1): Class dropper has…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/9/24      Featured track  Saratoga       Race number  7       Race overview  An extremely weak 40k MCL for NYB fms going 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf.       Pace  It’s a full field, so thing should be honest up front, as there are more than a few on paper who want to be involved.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #10 ROZAY SUMMER (4-1) (turf only): Tampa invader ran against open MSW runner in her debut, has been freshened up since, takes a massive drop, and sure doesn’t meet…

Happy Belmont Day!  The term “historic” is overused, but today is a historic day. For the first time since 1967 the Belmont Stakes will be contested somewhere other than over “Big Sandy”. This is a dream card with nine Graded Stakes, including six Grade 1s. Those six Grade Is are the most on any card in North America outside of the Breeders’ Cup Classic day.   Sure, it would be nice if the Belmont could have been contested at a mile and a half, but there is no Triple Crown on the line so that doesn’t matter as much as it might. This is a great Belmont field that…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/8/24      Featured track  Saratoga       Race number  11       Race overview  A solid renewal of the G1 Manhattan for 4up, this year run at 1 3/16 miles on the Mell turf course.       Pace  There’s little doubt $4 Strong Quality (15-1) will be loose, with potentially #5 Program Trading (5-2) being closest, but regardless, this figures to turn into a sprint off the far turn, as the former is a definite longshot on many different handicapping levels.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #9 MEASURED RIDE (7-2): One of two…

Happy New York Stakes Day!  It’s ladies day at the Spa with four filly and mare Graded Stakes on the card.  I’ll tackle the Acorn and the New York along with an All-Stakes Pick 4.   Much of the turf racing during this festival will come down to a battle between Chad Brown and Charlie Appleby. You need determine what to do with the Appleby runners as a group. Do you think they will fire or will the North American based turf trainers led by Chad Brown hold their ground? Appleby has already had a strong year in the U.S. with five wins in Graded Turf Stakes from sixteen…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  6/7/24      Featured track  Saratoga       Race number  2       Race overview  A very deep and competitive AOC for 3up going 1 ¼ miles on the main track.       Pace  It’s unlikely there will be much pace on going this far, which should temper things early, and turn this into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  The simple obvious answer is N/A, as this is a stand-alone four-day meet, but the gut says the track will be tight and speedy, and will play to speed, but obviously monitor that as…