Handicapping Articles

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/29/26      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  10       Race overview  A full but extremely modest field of fm3up 30k N2L at 1 1/16 miles on the turf (rails at 24’).        Pace  There’s not much here, which means #6 NEVER REALLY KNOW (7-2) should trip out on or just off the early lead.      Trends  The CD turf can be unpredictable, in terms of whether horses take to it or not, but on the whole, it plays fair and is rarely a speed-favoring highway that a GP or SA can be.     …

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/28/26      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  7       Race overview  A deep and competitive 20k N2L for 3up at 7 furlongs.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as it’s a full field and there are more than a few who want to be close and/or involved early.      Trends  It’s only been two days, but the main track seemed a bit forward this weekend. However, Derby Week is a different beast all together, and it’s usually speedy and can be inside as well, so take note early in…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 4/26/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 9   Race overview An extremely deep and competitive N1X for fm3up at 1 1/16 miles on the turf.   Pace There’s none here, with the glaring exception of #3 BRILLIANTLY (3-1), who looks loose as can be. Trends The CD turf can be unpredictable, in terms of what kinds of horses take to it or not, but on the whole, it plays fair. Best Play #3 BRILLIANTLY (3-1) (turf only): Baffert invader wired at this trip in her only start on turf at SA, and while that’s a speedy course,…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 4/25/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 8   Race overview An extremely deep and competitive 16k N2L for 3up at 6Fs.   Pace It looks supersonic, as several want to be inn front early, which suggests, with a long stretch, this could fall apart late. Trends N/A Best Play #7 ARMY WILDCATTER (6-1): Delta invader has a stalking gear that should be ideal off all the speed here, fits with these off his last—when he had plenty of trouble too—and shows a sharp 4/11 drill for ne trainer Ennis as well. Bet Types Aggressive WP place, and…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 4/24/26 Featured track Keeneland Race number 6   Race overview An extremely weak N1X for fm4up at about 7 furlongs.   Pace It looks honest, as more than a few want to be close early on. Trends The main track has played on the fair side for much of the meet, with winners coming from everywhere. Best Play #3 ABSOLUTE HONOR (7-5): Saffie filly has been freshened since a dominant—and fast—2/5 MSW win at GP, lures Ird, has trained forwardly for this, and meets a very weak crew, three of which who also exit maiden wins (that were…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 4/23/26 Featured track Keeneland Race number 3   Race overview A seemingly modest 30k claimer for 3yo fillies at 6 ½ furlongs.   Pace It looks hot and contested, as more than a few want to mix it up early, so at this demanding distance, that could be a problem late. Trends The main track has played on the fair side for much of the meet, with winners coming from everywhere. Best Play #6 ALTA AVENUE (8-1): Jacobson filly drops stiffly after trying 50k starter-allowance runners here 20 days ago, lures Irad, and has the most appeal as…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/22/26      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  8       Race overview  A very modest MSW for 3up at 1 1/8 miles on the turf.       Pace  It looks like it could be on the honest side, as there are more than a few entered who want to be close early on.      Trends  The Keeneland turf typically plays on the fair side, with winners eligible to come from everywhere, especially at a demanding distance like this.      Best Play  #10 GOLD SOVEREIGN (4-1) (turf only): Brown runner didn’t fire on the GP Tapeta…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 4/19/26 Featured track Keeneland Race number 8   Race overview A wildly deep and competitive renewal of the 300k Palisades for 3yos at 5 ½ furlongs on turf.   Pace There’s a ton of it here, as more than a few want to roll early, so there’s a legitimate chance this falls apart in the lane. Trends The Keeneland turf typically plays on the fair side, with winners eligible to come from everywhere, though it seemed a bit speedier early in the week. Best Play #11 INTRICATE SPIRIT (9-2) (turf only): Clement stalker ran OK on Tapeta off…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/18/26      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  6       Race overview  A solid N2L for 3yo fillies at 1 3/16 miles on the turf.       Pace  There’s basically none on paper, so this should be a tight early, and one that will sprint off the far turn.      Trends  The Keeneland turf typically plays on the fair side, with winners eligible to come from everywhere, though it’s worth noting the inside paths did seem to play well Sunday (so monitor things Wednesday and Thursday as well).      Best Play  #9 KENTUCKY BELLE (8-5) (turf only): Cox filly was a…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 4/17/26 Featured track Keeneland Race number 10 Race overview A deep and competitive MSS for fm3up at 5 ½ Fs on the turf. Pace It’s a turf sprint, an there are several entered who want to run or just off the early lead, so they should be motoring early. Trends The Keeneland turf typically plays on the fair side, with winners eligible to come from everywhere, though it’s worth noting the inside paths did seem to play well Sunday (so monitor things Wednesday and Thursday as well). Best Play #5 AMANI’S MUSIC (7-2): Cox filly was 2nd after…