Handicapping Articles

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/11/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  As tough a 25k starter-allowance for 4up at 6Fs as you’ll ever see.       Pace  Oddly enough, there’s very little here, so expect a tight group that will sprint off the far turn.      Trends  We’re finally getting some consistent racing on a fast main track, and while it’s a bit too early to tell, the main did have an off-the-pace feel to it Thursday and Friday, which is worth monitoring.      Best Play  #1 COMDEDY…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/10/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  2       Race overview  A modest 30k N2L for 3up at 6 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here at all, so expect a tight group early on that will sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #6 AIR OF DEFIANCE (7-2): Aqueduct invader also drops stiffly in class after facing tons better, has a good post and the tactical speed to be close early, and should relish this kind of…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/9/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  A competitive AOC for 3yos at 1 1/16 miles on the turf.       Pace  It seems to be honest enough on paper, as there are a trio who want to be involved/close early, which sure ensure a fair race.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #7 ENTERDADRAGON (3-1) (turf only): GP invader has been on a stakes only diet since January, while more than holding his own as well, and so this class drop is huge,…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/8/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  A full field of 3yof 50k starter-allowance foes at 6 ½ Fs on the main.       Pace  It’s not overly fast on paper, so expect a bunched group, while giving those with tactical speed—at the very least—an edge.      Trends  There’s nothing to gleam from the main track as of yet, as it’s been between fast and sloppy so far during the start of the meet, so keep an eye on it early in the week to…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 5/3/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 9   Race overview An extremely weak renewal of the newly minted G1 American Turf for 3yos at 1 1/16 miles.   Pace It looks honest, as #4 Mi Bago sizzles early and there are a few others who want to be close early, and with rain expected, that will be taxing on those who want to be involved. Trends This would be an N/A, however, with expected rain, and potentially a lot of it, you want to elevate anyone who has turf form over courses with give in it, like the Europeans.…

HAPPY DERBY DAY ! Today is the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby and all the pomp and circumstance that goes along with it. The forecast for rain once again on Derby Day so it looks like an off track at Churchill Downs. Trivia Question: D. Wayne Lukas has his fifty-first Kentucky Derby starter in the form of American Promise – it’s a race he has won four times. How many active trainers have a graded stakes race at Churchill Downs named for them? D. Wayne, that’s who. Who was Lukas’s first Derby winner? Race 11 The Turf Classic – Grade I One Mile and One Furlong on…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/2/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  12       Race overview  A seemingly average AOC for 3up at 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  It doesn’t look overly heated early, as there aren’t many true speed horses signed on, so being able to lay close seems imperative.      Trends  The main track had a very forward feel to it Tuesday and Wednesday, so continue to follow how the week progresses, as things have been known to be a paved speedy highway on the dirt during Derby Week,…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/1/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  A weak 50k conditioned N3L for 3up at 6 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  It looks hot and contested, as there are more than a few who want to be involved early and often.      Trends  The main track had a very forward feel to it on Tuesday, and while it’s just one day, it’s worth following how the week progresses, as things have been known to be a paved speedy highway on the…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/30/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  A solid renewal of the 200k Isaac Murphy Marathon for 4up at 1 ½ miles on the main track.       Pace  For a marathon, it actually seems honest, as there are more than a few who want to be close early, though how fast they’ll actually be going remains to be seen.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #5 LAMBETH (2-1): The favorite took his game to a new level in his last start when he…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/26/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  5       Race overview  A modest 20k N3L for 3up at 1 1/16 miles.       Pace  There’s not much here, especially considering several look like one-run plodders, so tactical speed, at the very least, is preferred.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #6 FORGE IN FIRE (7-2): Stalker should trip out nicely here on or just off the early lead, is much better on dirt than Tapeta, and has a local main trick win as well.      Bet Types   …