Handicapping Articles

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/30/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 6      Race overview:  A modest 20k MCL routing 1 1/16 miles on the main.       Pace:  There’s none here, aside from #4 EMBRACEABLE (8-1), who should shake loose early, against a field littered with deep closers too.      Trends:  It’s now painfully obvious that there is as intense an inside rail bias on the main track that has been seen in quite some time, as countless winners have wired on the rail, many of which have been implausible, or certainly down the pecking order…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/29/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 8      Race overview:  A deep and competitive AOC at 1 1/8 miles on the main for f/ms.       Pace:  I’m expecting #4 MAGIC BUBBLES (6-1) to control things early, as she had a disadvantageous outside post last time and got caught dueling with #5 She’s Lookin Lucky (3-1) last time, but drew much better here, and after frying the latter, you’d think that miss won’t want to get caught up with her again early here.      Trends:  It’s now painfully obvious that there is…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/25/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 6      Race overview:  A strong MSW for 3up routing 1 1/8 miles on the main.       Pace:  It looks honest, as there are more than a few that want to be close early, though going this far things figure to be a bit slower than anticipated.      Trends:  The main track was speedy and played to the inside a bit last week, so you should be close early.       Best Play:  #9 UNLOAD (6-1): Been waiting for this Gun Runner gelding to stretch…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/24/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 2      Race overview:  A restricted 2yo MSW sprinting 5 1/2Fs on the main, in a race where, even for this level, looks subpar.       Pace:  There’s a full field of 11, many of which have never started, so it should be honest up front.      Trends:  The main track was speedy and played to the inside a bit last week, so you should be close early.       Best Play:  #9 LET’S GO MARK (3-1): Stiff class dropper was facing open MSW foes in…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/23/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 7      Race overview:  An extremely deep and competitive N1X sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf, with a full field of 10 entered.       Pace:  It’s a turf sprint, so there will be plenty of heat up front, especially since there are a slew of dirt runners trying to the surface for the first time.      Trends:  They just aren’t running enough turf races to distinguish anything.       Best Play:  #3 COUNTERSTRIKE (10-1) (turf only): Stalker endured a wide trip last time but…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/22/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 1      Race overview:  A relatively modest 10k MCL sprinting 6Fs on the main.       Pace:  It looks honest, especially with the ML favorite (#1 King of Kentucky 9-5) down on the inside with plenty of speed.      Trends:  The main track was speedy and played to the inside a bit last week, so taking runners who are forwardly placed might be the best idea.       Best Play:  #8 SWAGGISH (3-1): Asmussen charge has been freshened, drops, and runs as a first-time gelding for…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/18/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 2      Race overview:  A very deep and competitive 25k claimer going a mile on the main, in a race where everyone can win, but it’s #1 ON A SPREE (3-1) who enters off a powerhouse win and now goes OTC for Sharp.       Pace:  Expect a compact group early, as there doesn’t appear to be any true speed, and a few of these might struggle to go this far as well, which might temper the enthusiasm early.       Trends:  They’ve only switched to The…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/17/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 3      Race overview:  A compact and competitive 20k claimer sprinting 6 1/2Fs on the main, with several contenders, though #4 COURTHOUSE COVE (2-1) seemingly holding all the aces.       Pace:  It looks honest, though there’s also no real true sprint speed either.      Trends:  They’ve only switched to The Pea Patch for two days of racing, and Sunday was run over a very sloppy track, so let’s take a wait-and-see approach before determining how things might be playing.       Best Play:  #4 COURTHOUSE…