Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/27/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A full field of 30k N2L sprinters, with several who are in with winning chances, though #8 SONO GRATO (8-1) offers plenty of value off a troubled trip.       Pace:  It should be hot and contested, as several here want to motor early, which means a stalking gear seems imperative.      Trends:  Winners are continuing to come from everywhere, with no noticeable biases, both in terms of path and running style.       Best Play:  #8 SONO GRATO (8-1): Stalker will…

Happy Fall Highweight Day!  The Highweight dates to 1914 when the filly Comely won the inaugural running as a two year old competing against older colts.  Recent editions have seen hard-knocking fan favorites Stallwalkin’ Dude, Life in Shambles, Salutos Amigos, and Caixa Electronica take the top prize.     The Red Smith is the feature race today, and it marks the end of graded stakes turf racing in New York for 2022.  We won’t see another graded stakes turf race in New York for five months.     Race 8 – The Fall Highweight Handicap – Grade III  Six Furlongs on the Dirt for Three Year Olds and Upward  This is…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/26/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A full field of (at this point) very mediocre 2yo MSW runners going a very long 1 1/8 miles, which means speed and stamina—and pedigree—should all be considered.       Pace:  On paper there’s not much here, and you have to think many riders will be patient, as this is a demanding trip for a 2yo at this time of the year, and it all means #7 POINT PROVEN (5-1) should be loose and controlling up front.      Trends:  Winners are continuing…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/25/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 8      Race overview:  A pretty modest 50k claimer for the level, with several who enter with suspect form, which is not a worry for #2 HONEY RUN (5-2).       Pace:  There looks to be more than enough here, as several want to be involved early, which means no one should be able to clear.      Trends:  Winners are continuing to come from everywhere, with no noticeable biases, both in terms of path and running style.       Best Play:  #2 HONEY RUN (5-2): Dominant…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/24/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 11      Race overview:  A solid field for the G3 Cardinal going 1 1/8 miles on the turf, with G1 winner #5 Dalika (2-1) leading the way over several graded stakes quality runners.       Pace:  It looks hot and contested between the two favorites, as both #5 Dalika (2-1) and #6 Adventuring (9-5) want to be involved early and often, and could tangle, being drawn next to each other.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #7 SUNNY ONE (8-1) (turf only): Stalker/closer has run…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/23/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 4      Race overview:  A full field of 30k MCLers, with several different ways to go.       Pace:  It should be honest, as there are 12 entered, and several who are stretching out as well.      Trends:  Winners are continuing to come from everywhere, with no noticeable biases, both in terms of path and running style.       Best Play:  #11 GUIDED ARROW (5-1): Lightly raced runner moved way up in his first dirt start last time, with a ton of trouble to boot, so…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/20/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 2      Race overview:  A seemingly average 2yo MSW for restricted sale horses, which makes stiff open MSW dropper #8 MIDSUMMER SOIREE (5-2) look mighty tough.       Pace:  It should be honest, as the pick will be involved throughout, and there are some expected fast firsters entered too.      Trends:  The main track played on the fair side last week, as winners came from everywhere, though being down inside seemed preferred.       Best Play:  #8 MIDSUMMER SOIREE (5-2): Bargain 10k buy set the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/19/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 1      Race overview:  A non-descript 15k MCL sprinting, with several who come in off duds, while #6 SUPE (5-1) woke way up on the dirt last time.       Pace:  It’s a full field sprinting on the main, so while it doesn’t look overly hot, it should be honest enough.      Trends:  The main track played on the fair side last week, as winners came from everywhere, though being down inside seemed preferred.       Best Play:  #6 SUPE (5-1): Lightly raced runner tried dirt…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/18/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A weak 3up 20k claimer at 1 1/16 miles, with class-dropping #1 BALLINONABUDJET (5-2) seemingly holding all the aces.       Pace:  There’s very little entered on paper, so expect a bunched field throughout, with a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  The main track played on the fair side last week, as winners came from everywhere, though being down inside seemed preferred.       Best Play:  #1 BALLINONABUDJET (5-2): Dropper has been facing tons better—while more than holding his own—drew…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/17/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 6      Race overview:  A decent 32k claimer sprinting on the main, with a few class risers in off good runs, and a few dropping off suspect ones.       Pace:  There’s not a ton here, which means #1 ASH FLAT (5-1) should be able to control from inside early, especially since he’s facing much easier this time.      Trends:  The main track played on the fair side last week, as winners came from everywhere, though being down inside seemed preferred.       Best Play:  #1…