Handicapping

Happy Cigar Mile Day!  There are four graded stakes at Aqueduct today headlined by the Cigar Mile which is the last of thirty-six Grade 1 races run in New York this year.  It honors the magnificent Cigar who won this race when it was known as the “NYRA Mile”.  The Remsen is part of the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” series and the top five finishers will be awarded Derby points (10-4-3-2-1).  This race is the first Derby prep to go nine furlongs. You will have to wait until the Withers in February for the next Derby prep to go as far.  Race 7 The Remsen – Grade…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/3/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 5      Race overview:  A deep group of 20k claimers routing on the turf, with several who have passed prior wining credentials.       Pace:  It doesn’t look overly heated on paper, so having tactical speed should be viewed at a premium.      Trends:  The answer is “N/A,” since this is the first week of turf racing since the spring, but with a newly renovated course, the feeling is you better be close early (which is usually the case here anyway).       Best Play:  #4…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/2/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A solid 50k MCL for sprinters, with several in with a chance, though it’s #3 EASY AS A.B.C. (9-5) who looks primed on the MSW drop.       Pace:  There’s very little on paper, for a main track sprint, so being able to lay close early is a big plus here.      Trends:  You want to be close on the dirt, as it’s difficult to make up a lot of ground if you’re not within striking distance entering the far turn.   …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  12/1/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A solid 16k MCL routing on the Tapeta, though it’s #3 LEOPARDI (9-5) that seems to hold all the aces.       Pace:  There’s not much on paper, so expect a bunched field early, which should turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  Tapeta routes consistently play to stalker/closers, with well over 70% of the races being won from off the pace, as speed rarely holds up front, no matter how slow they go.       Best Play:  #3…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/27/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A full field of 30k N2L sprinters, with several who are in with winning chances, though #8 SONO GRATO (8-1) offers plenty of value off a troubled trip.       Pace:  It should be hot and contested, as several here want to motor early, which means a stalking gear seems imperative.      Trends:  Winners are continuing to come from everywhere, with no noticeable biases, both in terms of path and running style.       Best Play:  #8 SONO GRATO (8-1): Stalker will…

Happy Fall Highweight Day!  The Highweight dates to 1914 when the filly Comely won the inaugural running as a two year old competing against older colts.  Recent editions have seen hard-knocking fan favorites Stallwalkin’ Dude, Life in Shambles, Salutos Amigos, and Caixa Electronica take the top prize.     The Red Smith is the feature race today, and it marks the end of graded stakes turf racing in New York for 2022.  We won’t see another graded stakes turf race in New York for five months.     Race 8 – The Fall Highweight Handicap – Grade III  Six Furlongs on the Dirt for Three Year Olds and Upward  This is…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/26/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 5      Race overview:  A full field of (at this point) very mediocre 2yo MSW runners going a very long 1 1/8 miles, which means speed and stamina—and pedigree—should all be considered.       Pace:  On paper there’s not much here, and you have to think many riders will be patient, as this is a demanding trip for a 2yo at this time of the year, and it all means #7 POINT PROVEN (5-1) should be loose and controlling up front.      Trends:  Winners are continuing…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/25/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 8      Race overview:  A pretty modest 50k claimer for the level, with several who enter with suspect form, which is not a worry for #2 HONEY RUN (5-2).       Pace:  There looks to be more than enough here, as several want to be involved early, which means no one should be able to clear.      Trends:  Winners are continuing to come from everywhere, with no noticeable biases, both in terms of path and running style.       Best Play:  #2 HONEY RUN (5-2): Dominant…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/24/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 11      Race overview:  A solid field for the G3 Cardinal going 1 1/8 miles on the turf, with G1 winner #5 Dalika (2-1) leading the way over several graded stakes quality runners.       Pace:  It looks hot and contested between the two favorites, as both #5 Dalika (2-1) and #6 Adventuring (9-5) want to be involved early and often, and could tangle, being drawn next to each other.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #7 SUNNY ONE (8-1) (turf only): Stalker/closer has run…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  11/23/2022      Featured Track/Race:   Churchill Downs – Race 4      Race overview:  A full field of 30k MCLers, with several different ways to go.       Pace:  It should be honest, as there are 12 entered, and several who are stretching out as well.      Trends:  Winners are continuing to come from everywhere, with no noticeable biases, both in terms of path and running style.       Best Play:  #11 GUIDED ARROW (5-1): Lightly raced runner moved way up in his first dirt start last time, with a ton of trouble to boot, so…