Handicapping

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/1/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A solid AOC for older going a mile on the main.       Pace:  Ut should be honest, and potentially hot, as more than a few want to be involved early, and things tend to get heated at this trip.      Trends:  You want to be close on the main, but at a one-turn mile, if they go fast early, it’s tougher to last (as opposed to 6 and 7F sprints).       Best Play:  #1 GIANT GAME (9-2): Improving and classy…

Happy Florida Derby Day!  This does not appear to be the deepest Florida Derby field as only half of the entrants have run a Beyer fig north of 85.  However, this field does include the clear leader of the division, Forte, who cemented his position with a dominating win in the Fountain of Youth.  Todd Pletcher will saddle Forte as he aims to extend his own record win total in the Florida Derby to seven.     Race 12 – The Gulfstream Park Oaks – Grade II  One Mile and a Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies  Flakes: Runs here off a win against N1X Florida…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/31/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 7      Race overview:  A compact but stakes-caliber AOC sprinting on the main for fillies & mares, in what looks like a key race in the making.       Pace:  It should be hot and contested, as the classy comebacker #2 Spirit Wind (8-5) will motor early, but #3 Bluefield (4-1) to her outside won’t make it easy.      Trends:  You ant to be close sprinting on the main, as races rarely fall apart, especially at this classy level.       Best Play:  #4 YOU…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/30/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A good Florida-bred AOC at a one-turn mile on the main track, with several capable runners, though the class-dropping #1 UNIVERSAL PAYDAY (7-2) looks to be in a very good spot against a potential sketchy favorite in #5 Floki’s Flight (7-5).       Pace:  It looks, as more than a few want to motor early, including #5 Floki’s Flight, who comes in off a layoff after a disappointing effort at the level (at odds-on) where he got dueled into the ground.     …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/29/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 3      Race overview:  A solid 12.5k N2L routing on the Tapeta with more than a few ways you can go.       Pace:  Expect a bunched group, as there’s not a lot of speed on paper, which means this should turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  Stalker/closers have been the way to go routing on the Tapeta, as speed tends to come back, no matter how slow they go early.       Best Play:  #7 ZEN (3-1): Versatile sort was a…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/26/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 2      Race overview:  A very weak bottom-level claimer sprinting on the main in a race that looks like easy pickings for #1 TWEAQUED (6-5).       Pace:  There’s not a lot here, so expect a bunched group early.      Trends:  You need to be close sprinting on dirt, as races rarely fall apart.       Best Play:  #1 TEAQUED (6-5): Nothing crafty here on a card that doesn’t have much to lean on, but this dropped simply looks spotted to score off the Saffie claim…

Happy Louisiana Derby Day!  This is the big day at Fair Grounds headlined by the Louisiana Derby. For reasons that escape me this race remains a Grade II, even though it has become a premier Derby prep especially since the distance was extended to a mile and three sixteenths in 2020. Recent winners have included Gun Runner,  Epicenter, and Hot Rod Charlie.    Race 11 – The Fair Grounds Oaks – Grade II  One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies   The Fair Grounds Oaks, which awards 100-40-20-10 points for entry into the Kentucky Oaks, has a surprisingly compact field of five. There…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/25/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 6      Race overview:  A solid AOC routing on the turf with countless contenders, though none have the upside—and likely talent—that #1 SIEGE OF BOSTON (4-1), who looks poised for a breakthrough.        Pace:  There’s little to none here, so expect a bunched group and a race that will turn into a 3F sprint late.      Trends:  Tactical speed plays on the turf, as races are rarely won from the back, though this one seems as much about a trip as anything.       Best…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/24/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 9      Race overview:  A full field of bottom-level claimers going a one-turn mile on the main, and there are plenty of ways to go, though #6 RHYMES LIKE DIMES (3-1) looks tough on the Saffie re-claim.       Pace:  It should be hot and contested, as both #2 Ben Copenhagen and #4 Rave On want to motor early on.      Trends:  The one-turn mile races are tricky, but you want to be able to stick close early, as the field can get gapped out entering…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/22/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 9      Race overview:  A deep and competitive 35k MCL routing on the turf, with a seemingly endless amount of possibilities, though it’s #7 RED’S REVENGE (4-1) who looks a standout off a nightmare trip last time and key trainer change off the claim.       Pace:  It’s a deep field filled with a few firsters and stretchout sprinters, so the pace should be honest to fast.      Trends:  You want to be able to show tactical speed, at the very least, on the turf, as…