Applebee: Closer look – La Derby / FG Oaks

Happy Louisiana Derby Day!  This is the big day at Fair Grounds headlined by the Louisiana Derby. For reasons that escape me this race remains a Grade II, even though it has become a premier Derby prep especially since the distance was extended to a mile and three sixteenths in 2020. Recent winners have included Gun Runner,  Epicenter, and Hot Rod Charlie.    Race 11 – The Fair Grounds Oaks – Grade II  One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies   The Fair Grounds Oaks, which awards 100-40-20-10 points for entry into the Kentucky Oaks, has a surprisingly compact field of five. There…

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Nadeau: Play of the Day Sat 3.25.23

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/25/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 6      Race overview:  A solid AOC routing on the turf with countless contenders, though none have the upside—and likely talent—that #1 SIEGE OF BOSTON (4-1), who looks poised for a breakthrough.        Pace:  There’s little to none here, so expect a bunched group and a race that will turn into a 3F sprint late.      Trends:  Tactical speed plays on the turf, as races are rarely won from the back, though this one seems as much about a trip as anything.       Best…

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Nadeau: Gulfstream Play of the Day Fri 3.24.23

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/24/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 9      Race overview:  A full field of bottom-level claimers going a one-turn mile on the main, and there are plenty of ways to go, though #6 RHYMES LIKE DIMES (3-1) looks tough on the Saffie re-claim.       Pace:  It should be hot and contested, as both #2 Ben Copenhagen and #4 Rave On want to motor early on.      Trends:  The one-turn mile races are tricky, but you want to be able to stick close early, as the field can get gapped out entering…

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Nadeau: Gulfstream Pick of the Day Thurs 3.23.23

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/22/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 9      Race overview:  A deep and competitive 35k MCL routing on the turf, with a seemingly endless amount of possibilities, though it’s #7 RED’S REVENGE (4-1) who looks a standout off a nightmare trip last time and key trainer change off the claim.       Pace:  It’s a deep field filled with a few firsters and stretchout sprinters, so the pace should be honest to fast.      Trends:  You want to be able to show tactical speed, at the very least, on the turf, as…

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Nadeau: Gulfstream Play of the Day Wed 3.22.23

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/22/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 2      Race overview:  A modest bottom-level N3L at 1-mile on the main, with several coming in off mixed form, which isn’t the case with #4 LITTLE BELITA (6-1), who has caught good groups in fast races for the level of late, and more than held her own.       Pace:  There are no burners here, so you better be able to lay close early.      Trends:  The one-turn mile races are tricky, but you want to be able to stick close early, as the…

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Nadeau: Gulfstream Play of the Day Sun 3.19.23

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/19/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 10      Race overview:  A solid 50k MOC sprinting on the main with several who have a right to make a dent, though open MSW dropper #3 POWERTRAIN (8-1) seems at the top of that list.       Pace:  It should be honest, as more than a few want to be involved early.      Trends:  You want to be close sprinting on the main, as horses just don’t make up significant ground without a complete meltdown.       Best Play:  #3 POWERTRAIN (8-1): MSW dropper chased…

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Nadeau: Gulfstream Play of the Day Sat 3.18.23

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/18/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 5      Race overview:  A deep and competitive MSW sprinting on the turf with numerous possibilities, which means an aggressive single will give you a big leg up on the rest of the betting public.       Pace:  It’s a turf sprint, so expect things to get hot and contested early on.      Trends:  You want to be close sprinting on the turf, as horses just don’t make up significant ground, so at the very least tactical speed is a must.       Best Play:  #6…

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Nadeau: Gulfstream Play of the Day Fri 3.17.23

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/17/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 2      Race overview:  A modest state-bred MSW going 7Fs on the main, where the proven dirt runners just don’t inspire, which means a fresh new face is in a good spot.       Pace:  There’s very little here on paper, so being able to lay close early should be extremely beneficial.       Trends:  You want to be close sprinting on the main, as horses just don’t make up significant ground, though at 7Fs things can temper a bit.       Best Play:  #2 CONFER (5-1):…

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Nadeau: Gulfstream Play of the Day Thurs 3.16.23

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/16/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 2      Race overview:  A very strong 20k claimer sprinting on the Tapeta, with several different ways you can go in a race the betting public might have trouble narrowing down.       Pace:  It looks hot and contested, as several want to be involved early and often, so being able to lay close but not too close seems ideal.      Trends:  You want to be close sprinting on the Tapeta, as horses just don’t make up significant ground, seemingly no matter how fast the speed…

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Nadeau: Gulfstream Play of the Day Wed 3.15.23

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/15/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 3      Race overview:  A competitive 16k claimer sprinting on Tapeta, with several different ways to go.       Pace:  It looks hot and contested, as several want to be involved early and often, so being able to lay close but not too close seems ideal.      Trends:  You want to be close sprinting on the Tapeta, as horses just don’t make up significant ground, seemingly no matter how fast the speed goes early on.       Best Play:  #5 CLASSY BOY (5-2): Stalker ran well…

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