Handicapping Articles

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/22/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  5       Race overview  A restricted MSW for fm3up at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  There’s little to none here, so anyone with some tactical speed should be elevated, and expect a bunched group on the far turn.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit more forward last week, though it continues, on a whole, to play fair when it’s been fast.      Best Play  #5 LOLO LE PLUME (5-2): Open MSW runner…

Happy Preakness Day!  We won’t have a Triple Crown winner this year as Sovereignty’s connections have passed on the Preakness. But this sets up the potential for a real nice Belmont where the Derby and Preakness winners could face off for the divisional lead. As for today, we have a very interesting Preakness with three Derby runners coming back, several stakes winners who didn’t make the Derby, a new shooter from Baffert, an overseas shipper, and a local hero. THAT is quite a collection.   Trivia Question: Why is Pimlico nicknamed “Old Hilltop”?  Race 12 The Dinner Party – Grade III  One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/17/25      Featured track  Pimlico       Race number  9       Race overview  A deep and competitive renewal of the Jim McKay Turf Sprint for 3up at 5 furlongs.       Pace  There’s a ton here, and with a course that could have some give to it, this could very well fall apart in the lane.      Trends  N/A – There was rain early in the week, and it could continue throughout the weekend, so check how the turf is playing on Thursday and Friday, and early on the Saturday card as…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/16/25      Featured track  Pimlico       Race number  13       Race overview  A competitive renewal of the G2 Black Eyed Susan for 3yo fillies at 1 1/8 miles on the main track.       Pace  There’s little to none here on paper, and with this a taxing distance for a lot of these, expect things to be slow early and turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A – With the meet just starting there’s nothing to go by here, though pay attention to how things played Thursday…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/15/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  6       Race overview  A competitive 32k claimer for 4upfm at 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s little to none here, so anyone with some tactical speed should be elevated.      Trends  The main track had a bit of an off-the-pace feel to it last week, and at the very least, played fair for all running styles.      Best Play  #7 PENS STREET (3-1): Veteran has been running two turns in her past two, so this cutback could be…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/11/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  As tough a 25k starter-allowance for 4up at 6Fs as you’ll ever see.       Pace  Oddly enough, there’s very little here, so expect a tight group that will sprint off the far turn.      Trends  We’re finally getting some consistent racing on a fast main track, and while it’s a bit too early to tell, the main did have an off-the-pace feel to it Thursday and Friday, which is worth monitoring.      Best Play  #1 COMDEDY…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/10/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  2       Race overview  A modest 30k N2L for 3up at 6 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here at all, so expect a tight group early on that will sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #6 AIR OF DEFIANCE (7-2): Aqueduct invader also drops stiffly in class after facing tons better, has a good post and the tactical speed to be close early, and should relish this kind of…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/9/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  A competitive AOC for 3yos at 1 1/16 miles on the turf.       Pace  It seems to be honest enough on paper, as there are a trio who want to be involved/close early, which sure ensure a fair race.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #7 ENTERDADRAGON (3-1) (turf only): GP invader has been on a stakes only diet since January, while more than holding his own as well, and so this class drop is huge,…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/8/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  A full field of 3yof 50k starter-allowance foes at 6 ½ Fs on the main.       Pace  It’s not overly fast on paper, so expect a bunched group, while giving those with tactical speed—at the very least—an edge.      Trends  There’s nothing to gleam from the main track as of yet, as it’s been between fast and sloppy so far during the start of the meet, so keep an eye on it early in the week to…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 5/3/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 9   Race overview An extremely weak renewal of the newly minted G1 American Turf for 3yos at 1 1/16 miles.   Pace It looks honest, as #4 Mi Bago sizzles early and there are a few others who want to be close early, and with rain expected, that will be taxing on those who want to be involved. Trends This would be an N/A, however, with expected rain, and potentially a lot of it, you want to elevate anyone who has turf form over courses with give in it, like the Europeans.…