Handicapping Articles

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 10/12/2022 Featured track Keeneland Race number 3   Race overview A very modest 30k N2L for f/ms going about 7Fs on the main.   Pace There’s not much entered, which suggests this will be a bunched group throughout, and turn into a sprint off the far turn. Trends Through three days of racing, the main track played very fair, with winners coming from everywhere.   Best Play #6 Miss Happy Tone (6-1): Class dropper has been freshened since running against tons better in April for Hartman, who is 33% off this elongated layoff, and this is as weak a group…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/11/2022      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  3      Race overview  A strong 10k starter-allowance for 3up going 7Fs.       Pace  It looks hot and contested, as several in here want to be part of things early, which means this could land in the lap of a stalker/closer in the lane.      Trends  Through three days of racing, the main track played very fair, with winners coming from everywhere.       Best Play  #4 Caramel Chip (3-1): Frequent flyer has been basically everywhere this year and all he does is win,…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/8/2022      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  8      Race overview  A very modest renewal of the 200k Indian Summer for 2yos going 5 ½ Fs on the turf.       Pace  It’s a full field of 2yo turf sprinters, so expect them to be moving up front, and things to be hot and contested.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #2 Amidst Waves (3-1) (turf only): Two-time turf sprint stakes winner showed some versatility last time at Saratoga, when he came from off the pace, an asset that will work…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/7/2022      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  4      Race overview  A solid N2X for f/ms going 1 1/16 miles on the turf.       Pace  There’s a bit of zip to the outside, so things should be honest, if not overly fast, up front.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #5 Saffron Moon (5-2) (turf only): Brown miss was pace compromised a bit when 4th in her comeback at Saratoga, against a group better than this, so she should be primed over a course she’s 1-for-1 on, with a world…

Happy Joe Hirsch Turf Day – Take 2!  The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic was planned for last weekend but the record rainfall downstate meant the turf course at the Big A was not available, so the race has been redrawn for today.  As a result, we now have a “Super Saturday” card with six graded stakes including three Grade 1s.   These are the last Grade 1 races in New York for the year. The next Grade 1 in New York will be the Carter Handicap run on Wood Memorial Day six months from now. But wait, what about the Cigar Mile that’s run in December?  That great race…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/6/2022      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  5      Race overview  A predictably deep and competitive conditioned allowance for 3yof going 5 ½ Fs on the turf.       Pace  It looks supersonic and contested, as several in here want to motor early and often, which says a stalker/closer can rule the day.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #8 DARING DO (9-2): Local course and distance winner fits the race profile, in that she should be able to settle off the speed early and get first run, and the freshening…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/1/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  7      Race overview  A seemingly solid MSW for 2yos going 1-mile on the main.       Pace  It should be honest, as there are a few first-time starters from ace connections that figure to show speed, and some experienced runners who will as well.      Trends  The main track really seemed to tilt towards stalker/closers over the weekend, which is worth keeping an eye on as they come back for another five-day race week.        Best Play  #5 STRONGHOLD (4-1): Impressive runner…

Note: According to a NYRA press release, “The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) has moved Saturday’s 11-race card at Aqueduct Racetrack to Sunday and pushed Sunday’s 10-race program to Wednesday due to torrential rainfall causing widespread flooding and hazardous conditions in the New York metropolitan area.” Happy Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Day!  We have four graded stakes at Aqueduct headlined by the Grade I Joe Hirsch Turf Classic along with three Grade IIs; the Woodward, the Vosburgh, and the Gallant Bloom. Plan for off going as it appears the NYC metro area will get several inches of rain Friday into Saturday.  Trivia Question: Only two fillies have…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/30/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  3      Race overview  A strong 50k claimer for 3up going 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  It doesn’t look overly heated, as there’s not a lot of true confirmed speed, so tactical speed, at the very least, should be preferred.       Trends  The main track really seemed to tilt towards stalker/closers over the weekend, which is worth keeping an eye on as they come back for another five-day race week.        Best Play  #3 ROYAL ACT (4-1): Class…