Handicapping Articles

Happy Future Stars Friday!  The Juvenile has a heavy favorite in the form of Bob Baffert’s Hughes. The Juvenile Turf is wide open and it should be noted Aiden O’Brien has won last four editions of the Juvenile Turf and eight of the seventeen editions of the race. He has four in the starting gate today in the 10th race.  Trivia Question: Which trainer has won the most Breeders’ Cup races?  Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – Grade I  One Mile and a Sixteenth on the Dirt for Two Year Olds  Damavand: Broke his maiden in his second career race going two turns at Keeneland as he…

PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 10/28/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 3   Race overview A competitive 50k MCL for 3up at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.   Pace There’s not much here, with the exception of #5, who is suspect as it is, so laying close early seems imperative. Trends Opening Day had a bit of an off-the-pace feel, with several runners coming from midpack or beyond (though it’s just one day). Best Play #4 GUNS ALLOWED (5-2): Cox runner didn’t fire in either start this winter at FG, while trying dirt and turf, but now returns off the break as…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 10/29/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 5   Race overview An extremely weak 20k MCL for 2yo filles at 1-mile.   Pace It’s a full field, with several stretching out, so things figure honest early on up front. Trends Opening Day had a bit of an off-the-pace feel, with several runners coming from midpack or beyond (though it’s just one day). Best Play #11 BOSS LADY KAR (4-1): Indy invader was doing the turf and two-turn thing in her first pair of starts and ran very well, but is bred-top-and-bottom for the main track, so with the surface switch…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 10/25/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 11   Race overview A seemingly very weak MSW for 2yos at 1-mile.   Pace It’s a full field, with several lightly-raced runners who are stretching out, so things figure honest up front. Trends N/A Best Play #5 FOOLS RUSH IN (3-1): Cox runner is bred top-and-bottom to relish two turns, so that debut 3rd sprinting 6Fs here in September seems the perfect tightener, and with the others looking suspect, he figures to roll here (at a lot less than 3-1). Bet Types Aggressive WP bet, and single to end the…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 10/24/26 Featured track Keeneland Race number 10   Race overview A strong OC 125k/N2X for 3up at 1 1/8 miles on the main track.   Pace Simply put, there’s none on paper, or at least no one who has shown a desire to be on the lead, so at this demanding trip, expect things to be slow early and turn into a sprint off the far turn. Trends A fast main track Wednesday and Thursday led to a very fair racing surface, with several winners coming from off-the-pace as well. Best Play #1 SASSMASTER (2-1): Lightly-raced Pletcher 3yo…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 10/23/26 Featured track Keeneland Race number 5   Race overview A very competitive 50k starter-allowance for 3up at 1 1/16 miles.   Pace There’s no burners signed on, so being able to lay close seems imperative, especially with the short stretch and finish line. Trends The main track was a mess last week, so monitor it this week, but as a whole, a fast main track has been on the forward side, a style you need to have at this trip with the short run to the finish. Best Play #3 GALLO DE FUEGO (9-2): Tactical sort takes…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 10/22/26 Featured track Keeneland Race number 7   Race overview A solid N1X for fm3up at 1 1/16 miles.   Pace It looks like it should be honest, and potentially even hot and contested, as there are several who want to be forward, and will need to be to get position into the quick run to the first turn. Trends The main track was a mess last week, so monitor it this week, but as a whole, a fast main track has been on the forward side, a style you need to have at this trip with the…

PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 10/21/26 Featured track Keeneland Race number 5   Race overview A seemingly modest (on paper) MSW for 2yos over the short stretch/finish line at 1 1/16 miles.   Pace It should be honest, as it’s a full field, several of which are stretching out off of sprints. Trends The main track was a mess last week, so monitor it this week, but as a whole, a fast main track has been on the forward side, a style you need to have at this trip with the short run to the finish. Best Play #2 JACKPOT ROCKET (3-1): Improving Mott runner…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/17/26      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  2       Race overview  A very meek 30k MCL for 2yo fillies at 6 furlongs.       Pace  It’s a full field of lightly-raced fillies and first-time starters, so expect things to be honest up front.      Trends  Weather wreaked havoc Wednesday and Thursday, but (when fast) the main track has seemingly been forward during the meet.      Best Play  #12 SAILOR’S DREAM (7-2): Ward filly chased and tired at 6 ½Fs at KD in an MSW debut, so she’ll have plenty…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/16/26      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  9       Race overview  A deep and competitive 25k claimer for 3up at 6 ½ furlongs.       Pace  For a full sprint field, there’s not really much on paper, so the ability to lay close seems imperative.       Trends  The main track was playing forward up to Saturday, then the rains hit and it was muddy/sealed, so monitor things early in the week.      Best Play  #1 TUSKEGEE AIRMEN (4-1): Stiff class dropper was claimed by trainer-owner Jacobson two-back for 50k,…