Handicapping Articles

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/19/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 4   Race overview A very solid 30k MCL for 3up at 6 furlongs.   Pace There’s very little speed on paper, with the exception of #7 Capital Connection (2-1), so being able to lay close seems imperative. Trends The main track continues to play fair at the meet, with winners employing different running styles. Best Play #10 TEMPUS PRIME (8-1): D’Angelo charge hasn’t been out since 1/25 in his MSW debut when 6th at GP in a loaded race, and while obviously something has gone amiss since then and…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/16/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 8   Race overview An extremely weak (on paper) MSW for 2yo fillies at 5 ½ furlongs.   Pace It’s a full field with several first-time starters, so things figure honest and potentially contested early on. Trends The main track continued to play fairly the first three days of the week, with winners coming from everywhere. Best Play #1 SLAY THE DAY (3-1): Lynch filly dueled and tired in her debut at 4-1, so they bet her in a big field, for a trainer that rarely wins with firsters but…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/15/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 5   Race overview A somewhat modest renewal of the Claiming Crown filly & mare turf race at 1 1/16 miles.   Pace It looks quite honest, as there are more than a few who want to be on or just off the early lead. Trends N/A Best Play #7 ASIMA (3-1) (turf only): Classy and versatile GP invader has held her own against legitimate listed stakes types horses, can sit just off the early pace, lures Irad, and looks primed against these. Bet Types Aggressive WP bet, and single…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/14/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 9   Race overview A loaded AOC for 3up at 5 ½ furlongs on the turf.   Pace There’s actually not too much here, save for the two outside runners, so tactical speed seems to be at a premium. Trends N/A Best Play #7 SMOKEY SMOKEY (9-2) (turf only): Maker charge was a strong 2nd off a 364-day layoff at Kee and now runs as a first-time gelding, so he should be able to improve significantly due to both, and he has a running style that can lay close as…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/13/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 1   Race overview A meek 50k starter-allowance for 2yos at 6 furlongs.   Pace It looks honest, as there are a few who want to be involved early. Trends A fast main track played very fair the latter half of the week, with winners coming from everywhere. Best Play #5 NO BEES (2-1): Speedy restricted MSW debut winner has since been privately purchased by C2 Racing (of White Abarrio fame) and company and turned over to Joseph, who excels with these types (28% with barn newcomers), and the fact…

        “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/12/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  A deep and competitive A/OC for 3up at 1 1/16 miles.       Pace  It should be honest, as there’s longshot speed (#5) and someone to keep him honest (#8).      Trends  A fast main track played very fair the latter half of the week, with winners coming from everywhere.      Best Play  #1 BIG BLUE LINE (5-1): Dutrow runner was knocking heads with some good ones on the main track in Saratoga and holding…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/9/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 5   Race overview A seemingly modest 20k starter-allowance for fm3up at 6Fs.   Pace There are a few who want to be on or just off the early lead, so at this tricky distance, a stalking gear seems a plus. Trends A fast main track was speedy on Wednesday but played very fair both Thursday and Friday, with winners coming from everywhere. Best Play #7 NGHT KISS (2-1): Indiana invader is going for five straight, drew perfectly, can sit just off the lead, and fits nicely with the locals…

Happy Mother Goose Day! This is a very strong card at the Big A today with five stakes races. The Grade II Mother Goose headlines the day but there are also two Grade IIIs on the turf – the Long Island and the Hill Prince along with the Pumpkin Pie and Dwyer Stakes. Trivia Question: Why is there a stakes race at Aqueduct named for a character in a nursery rhyme (Mother Goose)?   Race 9 – The Mother Goose – Grade II One Mile and One Furlong on the Dirt for Three Year Old for Fillies Being Myself: Curlin filly broke her maiden going a mile at…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/8/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 6   Race overview A deep and competitive 20k claimer for 3up at 7 furlongs.   Pace It’s a full field with more than a few speedy runners, so things figure to be honest up front. Trends A fast main track (it was sloppy Weds/Thurs) played to speed Saturday but was fairer Sunday, even playing to off-the-pace types. Best Play #5 AIR OF DEFIANCE (7-2): Class dropper held his form in an N1X when he was OTC for Simms, and while he drops, he’s still in over the claim price…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/7/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 8   Race overview A strong MSW for 2yos at 1 1/16 miles.   Pace There’s little to none on paper, as many of these have been closing early in their career, though the stretchout could change things. Trends A fast main track (it was sloppy Weds/Thurs) played to speed Saturday but was fairer Sunday, even playing to off-the-pace types. Best Play #2 MESQUITE (9-2): DeVaux runner broke slow then made up some ground and passed a few late on debut at 6Fs, is bred top-and-bottom to route, and should…