Handicapping Articles

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 12/11/25 Featured track Gulfstream Park Race number 4   Race overview A competitive state-bred AOC for fm3up at 6 ½ Fs on the main.   Pace It could be hot and contested, as both inside runners want to be on the lead, which suggests this could be won from a bit off the pace. Trends You need to be close in dirt sprints, even at this tricky distance, as races rarely fall apart in the lane. Best Play #6 VOLATILED (8-5): Stalker ran a career-best in her comeback when 2nd in a better and deeper race at…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 12/7/25 Featured track Gulfstream Park Race number 3   Race overview A solid bottom-level 12.5k MCL for 3up at 5 ½ furlongs on Tapeta.   Pace It looks honest and potentially crowded, as there are more than a few who want to be close and involved early on. Trends Tapeta sprints are won on the lead or by stalkers who can at least lay close, as those without early speed severely up against it. Best Play #1 JAKER (2-1): Saffie claim (29%) tries Tapeta after a pair of dirt sprints, has worked fast for this and got…

Happy Cigar Mile Day! And a Nod to the Fall Highweight This is the last big card of the year in New York with six stakes headlined by the Cigar Mile. The Remsen and the Demoiselle for two year colts and fillies respectively lead the undercard. While it’s a great card today we should acknowledge the loss of the Fall Highweight from the New York stakes calendar. The Highweight was a Grade III until 2023 and was contested as an ungraded event in 2024. Sadly, it was not on the stakes schedule this Fall. For a long time, the Highweight was the feature race on Aqueduct’s Thanksgiving Day…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 12/6/25 Featured track Gulfstream Park Race number 2   Race overview A very competitive 10k claimer for 3up at 1m70 yards on Tapeta.   Pace There’s literally none here, so expect a crawling, compact field early that will sprint off the far turn. Trends While Tapeta sprints typically all speed, routes can be difficult on the front runners, and conversely, stalkers/closers can get all the best of it, especially those rallying down the crown of the track. Best Play #2 DOWNING STREET (5-2): Class dropper has been facing tons better while holding his own and is clearly…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  12/4/25      Featured track  Gulfstream Park      Race number  3       Race overview  A meek 8k N2L for fm3up at 5 furlongs so Tapeta.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there are a trio (#3, #4, and #6) who all want to be involved early.      Trends  Tapeta sprints, especially the 5F ones, are won on the lead or by stalkers who can at least lay close, with those without early speed severely up against it.      Best Play  #5 PLUM IRISH (8-5): Stalker didn’t like the dirt but now gets back to Tapeta and drops from a…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/30/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 10   Race overview A deep and competitive 100k/N3X for 3up at 7Fs on the main track.   Pace It looks honest enough, as there are more than a few who want to go, including a pair drawn out wide and will need to be used early. Trends As it has all meet, a fast main track continues to play very fair, with winners employing all different running styles. Best Play #3 TAP INTO THIS (2-1): Streaking runner goes for his fourth straight for Asmussen, who gets aggressive here on…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/29/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  3       Race overview  A seemingly modest (on paper) MSW for 2yofs at 7 furlongs.       Pace  It’s a full field with plenty of first-time starters, so things figure fast, and potentially contested, up front early.      Trends  The main track was muddy or sloppy and sealed all week but Sunday, so you can’t garner anything there, though it’s been very fair throughout the meet when fast.      Best Play  #12 PRESUMPTUOUS (3-1): Godolphin blueblood was a chase-and-tire 5th on debut for Walsh, who…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 11/28/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 5   Race overview A solid 25k claimer for 3up at 6 ½ furlongs on the main track.   Pace It doesn’t look overly hot, as there’s not too much pure sprint speed on paper, so tactical speed would be a positive. Trends The main track was muddy or sloppy and sealed all week but Sunday, so you can’t garner anything there, though it’s been very fair throughout the meet when fast. Best Play #10 TRACK RANGER (8-1): Class riser has won two in a row, including a dominant win for 16k last…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/27/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 5   Race overview A solid 30k N2L forfm3up at 7 furlongs on the main track.   Pace There’s not much here, which means #9 TEMPERS FLY (7-2) should be close throughout, which will give her a big tactical edge. Trends The main track was muddy or sloppy and sealed all week but Sunday, so you can’t garner anything there, though it’s been very fair throughout the meet when fast. Best Play #9 TEMPERS FLY (7-2): Class dropper was on the rail and had to go at Kee and just…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 11/26/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 1   Race overview A modest 30k MCL for 2yo fillies at 1-mile on the main track.   Pace It looks honest enough, as more than a few want to be close and involved early on. Trends The main track was muddy or sloppy and sealed all week but Sunday, so you can’t garner anything there, though it’s been very fair throughout the meet when fast. Best Play #1 BERLINWIN (4-1): Improving sort rises off-the-claim for Kenneally, a 22% move, and he gets his main man Saez to ride (21% together) as…