Handicapping Articles

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/4/2022      Featured track  Santa Anita      Race number  4      Race overview  An absolutely sterling renewal of the G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at 1 ¼ miles.       Pace  It’s #1 IN ITALIAN (4-1) to catch, as there’s no one other than #8 Fev Rover (8-1) to keep her honest early, and even that one doesn’t have near the early foot to apply any serious pressure.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #1 IN ITALIAN (4-1): Expected Lone F ran the race of her life in defeat in…

Happy Future Stars Friday!  Welcome to Future Stars Friday – we have five Breeders’ Cup races today featuring two year old fillies and colts.   Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – Grade I  One Mile and a Sixteenth on the Dirt for Two Year Olds  The Wine Steward: Just missed in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland where he was bested by Locked (92 Beyer). That narrow loss was preceded by three straight wins to start his career which included wins in the Bashford Manor and New York bred Funny Cide Stakes. Steadily improving speed figs puts this one right there and his ability to rate helps as well.…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/3/2022      Featured track  Santa Anita      Race number  7      Race overview  A solid, if unspectacular renewal of the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at 1-mile.       Pace  The speed is, for the most part, poorly drawn to the outside, which suggests they will be motoring early to get position for what is a very quick run to the first turn.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #3 Buchu (6-1): Kee G2 winner didn’t break, lost several, lagged, tipped about 9-W on the far turn, levelled off midstretch, then…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/2/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4      Race overview  A relatively weak restricted MSW for 2yo fillies going 6 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  Things look honest, though not overly heated up front.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #10 Mixer (3-1): Stalker broke slow on debut, settled midpack, then made a strong move before predictably tiring a bit late, so with an alert beginning off that experience builder, she should be primed.      Bet Types    Aggressive WP bet and single in…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/1/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8      Race overview  A competitive AOC for 3up f/ms going 1 1/16 miles on the turf.       Pace  There’s really no speed signed on, and it’s a relatively short field too, so expect a bunched pack and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #6 Mo Bills (4-1) (turf only): Lightly-raced miss really improved at KD, when she settled just off the pace and powered home, meets no one to fear on the rise, and has…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/29/2022      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  6      Race overview  A relatively meek AOC for 3up f/ms going 6 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  It should be honest, as more than a few want to be involved early.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #11 Barbratina (4-1): Awesome debut winner was private purchase after and transferred to Cox, who is 29% with barn newcomers, and it looks like she’s caught the right kind of field to make back some of what they paid for…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/28/2022      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  4      Race overview  A seemingly modest MSW for 3up f/ms going 6Fs on the main, with a field that looks littered with horses with little to no upside.       Pace  Things should be honest up front, as it’s a full field with several who have shown some initiative in the past.      Trends  The main track tilted a bit towards off-the-pace runners over the weekend, but has, for the most part, played fair during the meet.       Best Play  #4 FOXFIRE (7-2):…

Happy Mother Goose Day!  There are three stakes on the BAQ card today headlined by the Mother Goose and Forty Niner. The Forty Niner was previously run as the Kelso, but no worries, the mighty Kelso still has a stakes race honoring him. The former Forbidden Apple at Saratoga was renamed for Kelso this year.  “Once upon a time there was a horse named Kelso. But only once.” – Joe Hirsch  Trivia Question: What is the Mother Goose Stakes named after?  Race 8 – The Mother Goose  – Grade II  One Mile and One Furlong on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies  Foggy Night: Wants a dry…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/27/2022      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  8      Race overview  A deep and competitive renewal of the G3 Valley View for 3yo fillies going 1-mile on turf.       Pace  It looks relatively tepid, as there’s very little confirmed speed signed on, which means a tactical gear will come in handy.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #6 SECRET MONEY (5-1) (turf only): Versatile miss can run on or just off the lead and she showed her true colors with a win at KD, and note she was just a…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  10/26/2022      Featured track  Keeneland       Race number  5      Race overview  A seemingly very weak MSW for 3up fms going 1-mile on the turf.       Pace  There are a slew of deep closers here, so tactical speed should play, especially since there’s no confirmed front runners entered either.      Trends  N/A       Best Play  #7 RED RIVER MAIGC (5-2) (turf only): Stretch out sprinter was a strong stalking 2nd in her turf bow last time, is bred to relish the added ground/turn she gets, and her tactical speed sprinting could…