Handicapping Articles

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/25/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  5       Race overview  A seemingly meek 20k MCL for 3up at 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  It’s a full field, with more than a few who want to be involved early, so things look honest up front.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit more forward last week, but on a whole, when fast, it’s been fair more often than not.      Best Play  #8 OUTDOOR CAT (5-2): Stiff dropper didn’t fire after a…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/24/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4       Race overview  A solid 25k claimer for fm4up at 6Fs on the main track.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as there are more than a few who want to be involved early on.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit more forward last week, but on a whole, when fast, it’s been fair more often than not.      Best Play  #9 OFF RAMP (3-1): Versatile sort has been on Tapeta, turf, and dirt this…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/23/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4       Race overview  A very weak MSW for 2yos at 5Fs on the turf.       Pace  On paper there’s not much here, with the obvious exception of   #7 OUTFIELDER (5-2), who looks like a pure speedball (in the AM) for ace 2yo debut trainer Ward.      Trends  They haven’t run too many turf races, but over a firm course last week, speed held well in the sprints.      Best Play  #7 OUTFIELDER (5-2) (turf or dirt): Ward firster cost…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/22/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  5       Race overview  A restricted MSW for fm3up at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.       Pace  There’s little to none here, so anyone with some tactical speed should be elevated, and expect a bunched group on the far turn.      Trends  The main track seemed to play a bit more forward last week, though it continues, on a whole, to play fair when it’s been fast.      Best Play  #5 LOLO LE PLUME (5-2): Open MSW runner…

Happy Preakness Day!  We won’t have a Triple Crown winner this year as Sovereignty’s connections have passed on the Preakness. But this sets up the potential for a real nice Belmont where the Derby and Preakness winners could face off for the divisional lead. As for today, we have a very interesting Preakness with three Derby runners coming back, several stakes winners who didn’t make the Derby, a new shooter from Baffert, an overseas shipper, and a local hero. THAT is quite a collection.   Trivia Question: Why is Pimlico nicknamed “Old Hilltop”?  Race 12 The Dinner Party – Grade III  One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/17/25      Featured track  Pimlico       Race number  9       Race overview  A deep and competitive renewal of the Jim McKay Turf Sprint for 3up at 5 furlongs.       Pace  There’s a ton here, and with a course that could have some give to it, this could very well fall apart in the lane.      Trends  N/A – There was rain early in the week, and it could continue throughout the weekend, so check how the turf is playing on Thursday and Friday, and early on the Saturday card as…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/16/25      Featured track  Pimlico       Race number  13       Race overview  A competitive renewal of the G2 Black Eyed Susan for 3yo fillies at 1 1/8 miles on the main track.       Pace  There’s little to none here on paper, and with this a taxing distance for a lot of these, expect things to be slow early and turn into a sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A – With the meet just starting there’s nothing to go by here, though pay attention to how things played Thursday…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/15/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  6       Race overview  A competitive 32k claimer for 4upfm at 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s little to none here, so anyone with some tactical speed should be elevated.      Trends  The main track had a bit of an off-the-pace feel to it last week, and at the very least, played fair for all running styles.      Best Play  #7 PENS STREET (3-1): Veteran has been running two turns in her past two, so this cutback could be…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/11/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  As tough a 25k starter-allowance for 4up at 6Fs as you’ll ever see.       Pace  Oddly enough, there’s very little here, so expect a tight group that will sprint off the far turn.      Trends  We’re finally getting some consistent racing on a fast main track, and while it’s a bit too early to tell, the main did have an off-the-pace feel to it Thursday and Friday, which is worth monitoring.      Best Play  #1 COMDEDY…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  5/10/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  2       Race overview  A modest 30k N2L for 3up at 6 ½ Fs on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here at all, so expect a tight group early on that will sprint off the far turn.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #6 AIR OF DEFIANCE (7-2): Aqueduct invader also drops stiffly in class after facing tons better, has a good post and the tactical speed to be close early, and should relish this kind of…