Handicapping Articles

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 9/25/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 4   Race overview A deep and competitive 100k MCL for 3up at 6 furlongs.   Pace It’s going to be honest, as there are several towards the inside who want to be forward, and comebacking MSW dropper #10 QUENTIN B (7-2) who just may be faster than all of them. Trends A fast main track continued to play fair over the week, with winners coming from all over, including several from off-the-pace. Best Play #10 QUENTIN B (7-2): Romans returnee was supposed to be a good one at GP but…

9.24.26 Churchill Downs Race number 6   Race overview A competitive OC 100k/N3X for 3up at 1 1/8 miles on the turf.   Pace It looks contested and potentially hot, as more than a few want to be on the lead early on, at what can be a very demanding distance. Trends N/A Best Play #6 PIERRE (7-2) (turf only): Stalker was hardly embarrassed in the G1 Woodbine Mile and now gets to put Lasix back on, just-missed two-back at Sar, and has a running style to take advantage of the expected contested pace. Bet Types Aggressive WP bet, and single in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well. Play…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/23/26      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  6       Race overview  A conditioned 50k N3L claimer for fm3up at 6 furlongs.       Pace  It looks honest, as there are a pair (#2 and #3) who want to go, which should secure a stalking trip for #4 JUST DO BELIEVE (7-2).      Trends  A fast main track continued to play fair over the week, with winners coming from all over, including several from off-the-pace.      Best Play  #4 JUST DO BELIEVE (7-2): Ct invader has won three straight…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/20/26      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  10       Race overview  A relatively modest restricted MSW for 2yo fillies at 1-mile.       Pace  It’s a full field with several stretching out, so expect things to be honest, and potentially contested, early on.      Trends  The main track was fair Opening Week, with winners employing all running styles.      Best Play  #3 THE FINAL SECRET (3-1): Pace player chased early then dueled before tiring when a distant 2nd in her debut at Ellis while beating a next-out winner,…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 9/19/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 6 Race overview A compact but solid group of six for the 300k Harrods Creek, for 3yos at 7 furlongs. Pace The graded stakes speed of #2 AMERICAN MAN (9-5) should allow him to dictate things on the front end. Trends The main track was fair Opening Week, with winners employing all running styles. Best Play #2 AMERICAN MAN (9-5): Speedster will be in front here and won’t face too much pressure from the outside, and the drop in class from a pair of graded stakes figures too much for there.…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 9/18/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 5   Race overview A solid 20k conditioned claimer for fm3up at 1-mile.   Pace There’s little to none here, so tactical speed seems at a premium, as this should be a tight pack that will sprint off the far turn. Trends The main track was fair Opening Week, with winners employing all running styles. Best Play #3 FINAL SHIPMAN (3-1): Stalker will be close early with such a decided lack of pace signed on, and her consistent form should play here, against a group there for the taking. Bet Types…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/17/26      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  6       Race overview  A competitive 100k MCL for 3up at 1 1/16 miles.       Pace  It looks tepid, as there are no burners on paper, which should help #9 MACCHIATO (7-2) who dueled last time in his return at Ellis.      Trends  The main track was fair Opening Week, with winners employing all running styles.      Best Play  #9 MACCHIATO (7-2): Pace player dueled and tired in an MSW return off a 14-month layoff at Ellis, so from a…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/16/26      Featured track  Churchill Downs        Race number  6       Race overview  A solid 16k conditioned claimer for fm3up at 6 furlongs.       Pace  It’s a full field, with more than a few first-time starters, so things figure to be honest up front.      Trends  It looks hot and contested, as there are several who want to be on or just off the early lead, which means this could fall apart late.      Best Play  #4 MODERN SOUND (3-1): Stretch runner was OK running two turns on turf…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 9/13/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 10   Race overview A full field but a relatively modest MSW for 3up at 6½ furlongs.   Pace It’s a full field, with more than a few first-time starters, so things figure to be honest up front. Trends N/A Best Play #11 C’S TODAY (9-2): Medina runner was a big 2nd in his Ellis debut for a barn that rarely cranks them, in what was a very fast race for the level as well, so against a modest group, with some tactical speed, he looks primed. Bet Types Aggressive WP…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 9/12/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 10   Race overview A seemingly modest renewal of the G3 Iroquois for 2yos at 1-mile.   Pace It looks honest, and potentially hot and contested, as there are several who want to be close early, and who are stretching out too. Trends N/A Best Play #1 CARIBBEAN LIFE (6-1): Ellis debut winner impressed visually for Walden and now gets Prat, should be able to settle slightly off the expected hot pace, is bred to love the added ground, and meets just one (#7) that he should fear. Bet Types Aggressive…