Handicapping Articles

Happy Derby Day! We have a very competitive renewal of the Kentucky Derby as evidenced by a lukewarm 4-1 ML favorite (Renegade). Frankly, a win by half of this field would not be that big of a surprise. Trivia Question: Why is the Derby called “The Run for the Roses”? Race 11 The Turf Classic – Grade I One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf for Four Year Olds and Upward         Corruption: Runs here after a second in the Pan American where he was collared late by Far Bridge (for the second year in a row) and earned a 97 Beyer. Might see a similar trip today,…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 5/2/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 7 Race overview An extremely competitive, though hardly overwhelming, renewal of the G2 Distaff Turf Mile for fm4up. Pace There’s not much here, save for #5 Classic Q, so tactical speed, at the vey least, seems imperative. Trends The CD typically plays on the fair side, as it seems to be kind to all running styles, though as a general rule of thumb those who can lay close to the pace should always be preferred. Best Play #3 PORTFOLIO DURATION (4-1): Lightly-raced Brown filly is aggressively spotted off a dominant 4…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 5/1/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 11 Race overview An extremely competitive, albeit relatively modest, renewal of the G1 La Troienne for fm4up at 1 1/16 miles. Pace It looks honest enough, as there are several who want to be close early, though there are no pure speeds signed on either. Trends The main track played fair Tuesday (it was muddy Wednesday), though it’s usually speedy and can be inside as well Dery Week, so take note as the days progress—provided the track is fast. Best Play #9 FULLY SUBSCRIBED (7-2): Brown filly has not been seen…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 4/30/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 1   Race overview A compact but competitive 50k N3L for 3up at 6 furlongs.   Pace It looks honest enough, as there are a few who want to be on or just off the early lead. Trends The main track played fair Tuesday, though it’s usually speedy and can be inside as well Dery Week, so take note as the days progress—provided the track is fast. Best Play #4 STAR’S IMAGE (9-2): Stalker comes into this fresh off a 1/11 layoff, and now takes blinkers-off and runs as a first-time gelding in…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/29/26      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  10       Race overview  A full but extremely modest field of fm3up 30k N2L at 1 1/16 miles on the turf (rails at 24’).        Pace  There’s not much here, which means #6 NEVER REALLY KNOW (7-2) should trip out on or just off the early lead.      Trends  The CD turf can be unpredictable, in terms of whether horses take to it or not, but on the whole, it plays fair and is rarely a speed-favoring highway that a GP or SA can be.     …

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  4/28/26      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  7       Race overview  A deep and competitive 20k N2L for 3up at 7 furlongs.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as it’s a full field and there are more than a few who want to be close and/or involved early.      Trends  It’s only been two days, but the main track seemed a bit forward this weekend. However, Derby Week is a different beast all together, and it’s usually speedy and can be inside as well, so take note early in…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 4/26/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 9   Race overview An extremely deep and competitive N1X for fm3up at 1 1/16 miles on the turf.   Pace There’s none here, with the glaring exception of #3 BRILLIANTLY (3-1), who looks loose as can be. Trends The CD turf can be unpredictable, in terms of what kinds of horses take to it or not, but on the whole, it plays fair. Best Play #3 BRILLIANTLY (3-1) (turf only): Baffert invader wired at this trip in her only start on turf at SA, and while that’s a speedy course,…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 4/25/26 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 8   Race overview An extremely deep and competitive 16k N2L for 3up at 6Fs.   Pace It looks supersonic, as several want to be inn front early, which suggests, with a long stretch, this could fall apart late. Trends N/A Best Play #7 ARMY WILDCATTER (6-1): Delta invader has a stalking gear that should be ideal off all the speed here, fits with these off his last—when he had plenty of trouble too—and shows a sharp 4/11 drill for ne trainer Ennis as well. Bet Types Aggressive WP place, and…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 4/24/26 Featured track Keeneland Race number 6   Race overview An extremely weak N1X for fm4up at about 7 furlongs.   Pace It looks honest, as more than a few want to be close early on. Trends The main track has played on the fair side for much of the meet, with winners coming from everywhere. Best Play #3 ABSOLUTE HONOR (7-5): Saffie filly has been freshened since a dominant—and fast—2/5 MSW win at GP, lures Ird, has trained forwardly for this, and meets a very weak crew, three of which who also exit maiden wins (that were…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 4/23/26 Featured track Keeneland Race number 3   Race overview A seemingly modest 30k claimer for 3yo fillies at 6 ½ furlongs.   Pace It looks hot and contested, as more than a few want to mix it up early, so at this demanding distance, that could be a problem late. Trends The main track has played on the fair side for much of the meet, with winners coming from everywhere. Best Play #6 ALTA AVENUE (8-1): Jacobson filly drops stiffly after trying 50k starter-allowance runners here 20 days ago, lures Irad, and has the most appeal as…