Handicapping

Happy Fountain of Youth Day!  We have entered the “Championship Series” portion of Derby preps as the Derby points are 50-20-15-10-5. A win in today’s preps will earn the winner enough points to make the Derby field.  Aqueduct Race 9  – The Gotham – Grade III  One Mile on the Dirt for Three Year Olds   The Gotham occupies an interesting spot on the Derby calendar. New York has already run two nine furlong Derby preps (Remsen and Withers), but today we turn back to the flat mile.  There is a ton of early pace signed up here – but there are no obvious closers.  It’s definitely a spread…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/4/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 12      Race overview:  An extremely strong renewal of the G2 Davona Dale, which stretches out the 3yo fillies to a one-turn mile.       Pace:  Oddly enough, for a 12-horse field full of talent and several who stretch out, there’s not a ton of sprint speed, which means you better be close early because it won’t be easy to pass late.      Trends:  You want to be close on the main regardless of the trip, but if a pace develops, you can close at this…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/2/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A tricky 7F low-level claimer sprinting on the main, with a lot of speed and trustworthy runners       Pace:  There’s a ton here, and none of it seems a cinch to last, as several come in off extremely poor runs.      Trends:  You want to be close sprinting on the main, though at 7Fs things can fall apart a bit if it gets too hot early.       Best Play:  #3 PURE SPEIGHT (5-1): Class dropper was facing 12.5ks on the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  3/1/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A solid enough 40k MOC sprinting on the Tapeta, but it’s the class dropper #5 ALLEN DIGGS (5-2) that seems to hold all the aces for the white-hot connections of Irad and Tharrenos.       Pace:  It’s a Tapeta sprint, so there will be some heat, though #5 ALLEN DIGGS (5-2) seems to have the most, which is never a bad thing at this trip.      Trends:  As hinted at, speed plays sprinting on the Tapeta, as no matter how fast they…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  2/26/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 9      Race overview:  A solid AOC routing on the turf for f/ms, with a lot of quality, none more so than #10 DIAMOND HANDS (7-2).       Pace:  There’s enough here, as #7 Regal Realm (8-1) should be going, and #10 DIAMOND HANDS (7-2) will be going (in some form) from the outside draw as well.      Trends:  Tactical speed—at the very least—is preferred on the turf, as horses just don’t come from too far back to win.       Best Play:  #10 DIAMOND HANDS…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  2/25/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 6      Race overview:  A very modest 12.5-10k N2L sprinting on the Tapeta with little options, and not much speed either, both of which should flatter #11 OAXACA (4-1).       Pace:  There’s not much here, which means tactical speed is at a premium, and #11 OAXACA (4-1) has plenty of it, and drew perfectly too.      Trends:  You need to be close in the Tapeta sprints, as horses just don’t make up significant ground, seemingly no matter how quick they go up front.      …

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  2/24/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A competitive 25k starter-allowance routing on the turf, with several different ways to go, though more than a few enter off suspect form, which is not the case with #7 DONTMESSWITHTESS (3-1).       Pace:  There’s enough here to keep things honest up front, and not let anyone get away with setting soft splits.      Trends:  Tactical speed—at the very least—is preferred on the turf, as horses just don’t come from too far back to win.       Best Play:  #7 DONTMESSWITHTESS…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  2/23/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Gulfstream Park – Race 4      Race overview:  A deep and competitive 16k claimer sprinting on the Tapeta.       Pace:  There’s not as much early heat as you’d expect for a Tapeta sprint, so expect a bit of a bunched group, therefore tactical speed will be at a premium.      Trends:  That aforementioned tactical speed—at the very least—is preferred going one-turn on the Tapeta, as horses just don’t make up significant ground, no matter how fast they go early.       Best Play:  #1 ISLAND MAGIC (6-1): Endured a…