Handicapping

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/14/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 9   Race overview A loaded AOC for 3up at 5 ½ furlongs on the turf.   Pace There’s actually not too much here, save for the two outside runners, so tactical speed seems to be at a premium. Trends N/A Best Play #7 SMOKEY SMOKEY (9-2) (turf only): Maker charge was a strong 2nd off a 364-day layoff at Kee and now runs as a first-time gelding, so he should be able to improve significantly due to both, and he has a running style that can lay close as…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/13/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 1   Race overview A meek 50k starter-allowance for 2yos at 6 furlongs.   Pace It looks honest, as there are a few who want to be involved early. Trends A fast main track played very fair the latter half of the week, with winners coming from everywhere. Best Play #5 NO BEES (2-1): Speedy restricted MSW debut winner has since been privately purchased by C2 Racing (of White Abarrio fame) and company and turned over to Joseph, who excels with these types (28% with barn newcomers), and the fact…

        “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/12/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview  A deep and competitive A/OC for 3up at 1 1/16 miles.       Pace  It should be honest, as there’s longshot speed (#5) and someone to keep him honest (#8).      Trends  A fast main track played very fair the latter half of the week, with winners coming from everywhere.      Best Play  #1 BIG BLUE LINE (5-1): Dutrow runner was knocking heads with some good ones on the main track in Saratoga and holding…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/9/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 5   Race overview A seemingly modest 20k starter-allowance for fm3up at 6Fs.   Pace There are a few who want to be on or just off the early lead, so at this tricky distance, a stalking gear seems a plus. Trends A fast main track was speedy on Wednesday but played very fair both Thursday and Friday, with winners coming from everywhere. Best Play #7 NGHT KISS (2-1): Indiana invader is going for five straight, drew perfectly, can sit just off the lead, and fits nicely with the locals…

Happy Mother Goose Day! This is a very strong card at the Big A today with five stakes races. The Grade II Mother Goose headlines the day but there are also two Grade IIIs on the turf – the Long Island and the Hill Prince along with the Pumpkin Pie and Dwyer Stakes. Trivia Question: Why is there a stakes race at Aqueduct named for a character in a nursery rhyme (Mother Goose)?   Race 9 – The Mother Goose – Grade II One Mile and One Furlong on the Dirt for Three Year Old for Fillies Being Myself: Curlin filly broke her maiden going a mile at…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/8/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 6   Race overview A deep and competitive 20k claimer for 3up at 7 furlongs.   Pace It’s a full field with more than a few speedy runners, so things figure to be honest up front. Trends A fast main track (it was sloppy Weds/Thurs) played to speed Saturday but was fairer Sunday, even playing to off-the-pace types. Best Play #5 AIR OF DEFIANCE (7-2): Class dropper held his form in an N1X when he was OTC for Simms, and while he drops, he’s still in over the claim price…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/7/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 8   Race overview A strong MSW for 2yos at 1 1/16 miles.   Pace There’s little to none on paper, as many of these have been closing early in their career, though the stretchout could change things. Trends A fast main track (it was sloppy Weds/Thurs) played to speed Saturday but was fairer Sunday, even playing to off-the-pace types. Best Play #2 MESQUITE (9-2): DeVaux runner broke slow then made up some ground and passed a few late on debut at 6Fs, is bred top-and-bottom to route, and should…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/6/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 8 Race overview A listed stakes caliber OC 100k/ALW for 3up at 6 furlongs. Pace There’s not much here, which means #1 HARRODSBURG (2-1) should be able to control things early. Trends A fast main track (it was sloppy Weds/Thurs) played to speed Saturday but was fairer Sunday, even playing to off-the-pace types. Best Play #1 HARRODSBURG (2-1): Veteran speedster got fried against a good group at Kee but is back at home where he’s 8-3-2-1, and should be able to clear early, which will go a long way late.…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  11/5/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  7       Race overview  A competitive 100k MCL for 2yo at 1 1/16 miles.       Pace  There’s very little here, even with several stretching out, so being able to lay close early seems important.      Trends  A fast main track (it was sloppy Weds/Thurs) played to speed Saturday but was fairer Sunday, even playing to off-the-pace types.      Best Play  #6 FLAMING RAINBOW (7-2): Stretchout sprinter chased and tired on debut in a 7F MSW at Keen, so he should be close early, takes the biggest drop in racing, and looks…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/2/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 2   Race overview A very weak 30k MCL for 2yos at 1 1/16 miles.   Pace There’s none here, so things figure to be bunched early and turn into a sprint off the far turn. Trends A fast main track (it was sloppy Wednesday and Thursday) seemed to be favor speed and those who could lay close early. Best Play #7 SEAL BAY (6-5): There’s no value here, but this MSW dropper should be able to handle this meek group for Walsh, for has been going great guns in…