Handicapping

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/27/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 5   Race overview A solid 30k N2L forfm3up at 7 furlongs on the main track.   Pace There’s not much here, which means #9 TEMPERS FLY (7-2) should be close throughout, which will give her a big tactical edge. Trends The main track was muddy or sloppy and sealed all week but Sunday, so you can’t garner anything there, though it’s been very fair throughout the meet when fast. Best Play #9 TEMPERS FLY (7-2): Class dropper was on the rail and had to go at Kee and just…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau Date 11/26/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 1   Race overview A modest 30k MCL for 2yo fillies at 1-mile on the main track.   Pace It looks honest enough, as more than a few want to be close and involved early on. Trends The main track was muddy or sloppy and sealed all week but Sunday, so you can’t garner anything there, though it’s been very fair throughout the meet when fast. Best Play #1 BERLINWIN (4-1): Improving sort rises off-the-claim for Kenneally, a 22% move, and he gets his main man Saez to ride (21% together) as…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/23/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 10   Race overview A full field but a seemingly mild MSW for 2yos at 6 ½ furlongs.   Pace There’s 12 here, with several firsters, and a few experienced runners who have shown speed, so things figure honest up front. Trends A muddy/sealed track was speedy Wednesday but more off-the-pace Thursday, though when it dries out, outside closers can do very well, so monitor the races Friday and as the week progresses. Best Play #8 WALL STREET (5-2): Winstar homebred debuts for Cox, who has Irad named on this…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/22/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 6   Race overview A deep and competitive 50k MCL for 2yofs at 6 ½ furlongs.   Pace It’s a full field with several firsters, and a few experienced runners who have been close early, so things figure honest up front. Trends A muddy/sealed track was speedy Wednesday but more off-the-pace Thursday, though when it dries out, outside closers can do very well, so monitor the races Friday and as the week progresses. Best Play #10 SOUPERRAZZLEDAZZLE (9-2): Casse MSW dropper also tries the main after two WO failed Tapeta…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/21/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 9   Race overview A stakes caliber OC 100k/N3X for 3up at 1 1/16 miles.   Pace Things look honest up front, as both #4 Not This Boy (8-5) and #5 Jayhawk (15-1) want to be on or just off the early lead. Trends The main track continues to play fair at the meet, with winners employing different running styles. Best Play #7 CATCHING FREEDOM (5-2): Ace 3yo has had a trying season at 4 but got going last time, when showing more speed and running a strong 2nd at…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/20/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 3   Race overview A competitive 30k N2L for 3up at 1-mile on the main track.   Pace Things look honest up front, as there are a pair (#1 and #4) who want to be on or just off the early lead. Trends The main track continues to play fair at the meet, with winners employing different running styles. Best Play #9 EXPECT THE BEST (3-1): Another D’Angelo runner (he was also the BB Wednesday) goes for a barn that brought winning types to the meet, and this one, on…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/19/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 4   Race overview A very solid 30k MCL for 3up at 6 furlongs.   Pace There’s very little speed on paper, with the exception of #7 Capital Connection (2-1), so being able to lay close seems imperative. Trends The main track continues to play fair at the meet, with winners employing different running styles. Best Play #10 TEMPUS PRIME (8-1): D’Angelo charge hasn’t been out since 1/25 in his MSW debut when 6th at GP in a loaded race, and while obviously something has gone amiss since then and…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/16/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 8   Race overview An extremely weak (on paper) MSW for 2yo fillies at 5 ½ furlongs.   Pace It’s a full field with several first-time starters, so things figure honest and potentially contested early on. Trends The main track continued to play fairly the first three days of the week, with winners coming from everywhere. Best Play #1 SLAY THE DAY (3-1): Lynch filly dueled and tired in her debut at 4-1, so they bet her in a big field, for a trainer that rarely wins with firsters but…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/15/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 5   Race overview A somewhat modest renewal of the Claiming Crown filly & mare turf race at 1 1/16 miles.   Pace It looks quite honest, as there are more than a few who want to be on or just off the early lead. Trends N/A Best Play #7 ASIMA (3-1) (turf only): Classy and versatile GP invader has held her own against legitimate listed stakes types horses, can sit just off the early pace, lures Irad, and looks primed against these. Bet Types Aggressive WP bet, and single…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 11/14/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 9   Race overview A loaded AOC for 3up at 5 ½ furlongs on the turf.   Pace There’s actually not too much here, save for the two outside runners, so tactical speed seems to be at a premium. Trends N/A Best Play #7 SMOKEY SMOKEY (9-2) (turf only): Maker charge was a strong 2nd off a 364-day layoff at Kee and now runs as a first-time gelding, so he should be able to improve significantly due to both, and he has a running style that can lay close as…