Handicapping Articles

The 2022 Derby prep trail began last September in the Iroquois Stakes when the first Derby points were awarded. But now all the preps are done, all the points have been counted, and today the road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby ends.

The racing season is beginning to bloom in the New York Spring sunshine. Turf racing has returned to the Big A and today marks the first Grade I (The Carter) of 2022 in New York on a card that is headlined by the Wood Memorial. I’ll tackle two of the primary Derby preps being contested today – the Wood at the Big A and the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Both offer 100-40-20-10 Derby points to get into the starting gate of what appears to be a wide open Kentucky Derby.

Happy Louisiana Derby Day! This is the big day at Fair Grounds with eight stakes races including four Grade IIs. The Louisiana Derby is the feature race, and it awards 100-40-20-10 points for entry into the Kentucky Derby. The card also includes one of the major Kentucky Oaks preps, The Fair Grounds Oaks. “Laissez le bon temps rouler!” Race 11 – The Fair Grounds Oaks – Grade II One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies March 26th 2022 Three of the six entrants from the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies race meet here again – with Champion two year filly Echo Zulu…

This is the primary Derby Prep at Tampa Bay, and it attracts a competitive field including the top two finishers from the Sam F. Davis Stakes. It looks like it will be an off track which is something most of these runners haven’t faced before.

Happy Fountain of Youth Day! At this point, the Kentucky Derby trail is more muddled than usual with a different horse seemingly winning every prep race and the Baffert trainees ineligible to earn points. Today we three have Derby preps - the Gotham, the San Felipe, and the Fountain of Youth. I’ll tackle the Gotham and the Fountain of Youth. We have entered the “Championship Series” portion of Derby preps and the points have significantly increased for the top four finishers (50-20-10-5). The winner of today’s Derby prep will earn enough points to get into the starting gate on the first Saturday of May - even finishing second…

The serious part Kentucky Derby prep season is now underway. The top four finishers in both the Withers and the Holy Bull will receive Kentucky Derby points (10-4-2-1), and they will set themselves up for entry into the next round of preps where the Derby points significantly increase (50-20-10-5).

“If you build it – they will come” calmly announced the ethereal, disembodied voice in Field of Dreams. However, that disembodied voice hadn’t contemplated Knicks Go and Life Is Good significantly thinning out the competition in a $3 million race.

This Aqueduct card could easily be held on a Saturday in Saratoga with four Graded Stakes headlined by the final Grade I of the year in New York – the Cigar Mile. In addition, there are four turf races carded – on December 4th! I’ll tackle the Cigar Mile along with the Grade II Remsen for two year colts. The other two stakes at the Big A today are the Grade II Demoiselle for two year old fillies and the Grade III Go For Wand for fillies and mares ages three and up.

Today is THE day – nine Breeders’ Cup races highlighted by the $4 million Breeders’ Cup Turf and the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic. I’ll tackle those two headline Breeders’ Cup races here. The best of the best are here for these two headlining races and you can make good cases for five or six entrants in each. This of course leads to great prices in many Breeders’ Cup races and those Breeders’ Cup exotic payouts tend to be very juicy due to the size of the fields and the way money is spread throughout the pools.