Handicapping Articles

Happy Belmont Derby Day!  Today is excellent card headlined by the first legs of the Turf Triple and Fillies Turf Triple for three year olds.  The second legs will be run at Saratoga in August and the final races in the sequence will be held at Aqueduct in the Fall.   Race 8 – The Belmont Oaks Invitational – Grade I  One Mile and One Quarter on the Inner Turf for Three Year Old Fillies   This is a competitive race with a couple of good Euros as well as the top two finishers from both the Wonder Again Stakes at Belmont and the Regret Stakes at Churchill.   Mission of…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  7/7/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Belmont Park – Race 7      Race overview:  A solid MSW going 1 ¼ miles on the turf for 3up, with several who appear to have talent.       Pace:  There’s no burners here, and going this long, you should things to be tepid early, with a late sprint looming.      Trends:  The turf course has been fast and firm for the majority of the meet, which has yielded quick splits while showing a penchant for carrying speed a bit farther than you might expect.       Best Play:  #2…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  7/2/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 1      Race overview:  A meek 50k N2L for f/ms sprinting 6Fs on the main, with very few who have the form to win.       Pace:  There’s none here, aside from #5 EMPIRE OF MY OWNA (3-1), who should shake loose early over a track that has played to her kind.      Trends:  It’s now painfully obvious that there is as intense an inside rail bias on the main track that has been seen in quite some time, as countless winners have wired on the…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  7/1/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 11      Race overview:  A solid renewal of the Tepin, for 3yof going 1-mile on turf.       Pace:  It’s pretty cut and dried, as #3 Heavenly Sunday (5-2) will carve out the splits, with #5 XIGERA (2-1) spying her from the outside.      Trends:  N/A: They just haven’t run enough turf races to get any definitive feel, not to mention they’ve been forced OFF of late as well.       Best Play:  #5 XIGERA (2-1) (turf only): Classy 2yo toyed with a group of older…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/30/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 6      Race overview:  A modest 20k MCL routing 1 1/16 miles on the main.       Pace:  There’s none here, aside from #4 EMBRACEABLE (8-1), who should shake loose early, against a field littered with deep closers too.      Trends:  It’s now painfully obvious that there is as intense an inside rail bias on the main track that has been seen in quite some time, as countless winners have wired on the rail, many of which have been implausible, or certainly down the pecking order…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/29/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 8      Race overview:  A deep and competitive AOC at 1 1/8 miles on the main for f/ms.       Pace:  I’m expecting #4 MAGIC BUBBLES (6-1) to control things early, as she had a disadvantageous outside post last time and got caught dueling with #5 She’s Lookin Lucky (3-1) last time, but drew much better here, and after frying the latter, you’d think that miss won’t want to get caught up with her again early here.      Trends:  It’s now painfully obvious that there is…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/25/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 6      Race overview:  A strong MSW for 3up routing 1 1/8 miles on the main.       Pace:  It looks honest, as there are more than a few that want to be close early, though going this far things figure to be a bit slower than anticipated.      Trends:  The main track was speedy and played to the inside a bit last week, so you should be close early.       Best Play:  #9 UNLOAD (6-1): Been waiting for this Gun Runner gelding to stretch…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  6/24/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Ellis Park – Race 2      Race overview:  A restricted 2yo MSW sprinting 5 1/2Fs on the main, in a race where, even for this level, looks subpar.       Pace:  There’s a full field of 11, many of which have never started, so it should be honest up front.      Trends:  The main track was speedy and played to the inside a bit last week, so you should be close early.       Best Play:  #9 LET’S GO MARK (3-1): Stiff class dropper was facing open MSW foes in…