Handicapping

Play of the Day Race Date November 27, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 8 Overview A wide, wide open two-turn AOC for 2yos where several of the favorites are tough to trust, which therefore makes this a very appealing race to go price shopping. Pace There seems to be plenty here, so I’m leaning towards those who have shown the ability to settle and pass horses late. Trends The track continues to play honest, with speed holding, though stalker/closers still had a fair go of it too. Best Bet KEVIN’S FOLLY Number 8 Morning Line (12-1) Best Bet Overview #8 KEVIN’S FOLLY (12-1): Price player had zero chance…

Play of the Day Race Date November 26, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 3 Overview An extremely weak 40k MCL with few, if any, moving the right direction, and an MSW dropper in #5 MISS TULSA (7-2) who faces by far the easiest group of her career. Pace On paper it seems light, so tactical speed should be at a premium. Trends The track continues to play honest, with speed holding, though stalker/closers still had a fair go of it too. Best Bet MISS TULSA Number 5 Morning Line (7-2) Best Bet Overview #5 MISS TULSA (7-2): MSW dropper has been facing tons better, ran well off the…

Play of the Day Race Date November 25, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 8 Overview A very weak 30k claimer with few who have upside, while #10 NIC AND ZOE (9-2) has plenty. Pace There’s not a lot here, so expect #10 NIC AND ZOE (9-2) to either clear early, or set up shop just outside any potential speed that develops to her inside, which would work nicely too. Trends The track continues to play honest, with speed holding, though stalker/closers still had a fair go of it too. Best Bet NIC AND ZOE Number 10 Morning Line (9-2) Best Bet Overview #10 NIC AND ZOE (9-2): It…

Play of the Day Race Date November 21, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 5 Overview An extremely weak 10k N2L with very few candidates, and a runner in #7 SOUTHERN RAGS (3-1) with plenty of upside. Pace It should be moderate, but when you’re dealing with a group like this, showing the ability to pass the stragglers is a big positive. Trends The track was much more honest last week, with speed holding nicely, though stalker/closers still had a fair go of it too. Best Bet SOUTHERN RAGS Number 7 Morning Line (3-1) Best Bet Overview #7 SOUTHERN RAGS (3-1): Indiana invader was a good—and fast—3rd trying winners…

Play of the Day Race Date November 20, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 4 Overview A very strong and compact AOC for fillies and mares, and a race where the favorites don’t have to win, and may tire each other out on the lead. Pace It looks hot and contested, with all three favorites (#1, #3 and #6) all potentially mixing it up early and often, so I’m playing it to fall apart in the lane. Trends The track was much more honest last week, with speed holding nicely, though stalker/closers still had a fair go of it too. Best Bet SHESOMAJESTIC Number 2 Morning Line (10-1) Best…

Play of the Day Race Date November 19, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 4 Overview A modest MCL for 2yos that seems there for the taking, with the experienced MCL runners now proving to be much, and the firsters looking uninspiring as well. Pace It figures honest, as there are several lightly raced runners, as well as firsters from speedy barns. Trends The track was much more honest last week, with speed holding nicely, though stalker/closers still had a fair go of it too. Best Bet YOLO SANTIAGO Number 8 Morning Line (5-1) Best Bet Overview #8 YOLO SANTIAGO (5-1): MSW dropper chased then tired on debut in…

Play of the Day Race Date November 18, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 9 Overview A non-descript 2yo MCL with no standouts, and a class dropper in #7 NAPA VALLEY (6-1) that seems poised for a breakthrough. Pace There should be plenty here, with a full field of lightly raced 2yos, several who are dropping in class as well. Trends The track was much more honest last week, with speed holding nicely, though stalker/closers still had a fair go of it too. Best Bet NAPA VALLEY Number 7 Morning Line (6-1) Best Bet Overview #7 NAPA VALLEY (6-1): MSW dropper goes from Pletcher to Brissett, who is 20%…

Play of the Day Race Date November 17, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 7 Overview A very strong 20k starter-allowance with a trio of classy, in-form runners. Pace It should be very hot and very contested, with both (ML) favorites, #4 Inthemidstofbiz (8-5) and #8 Lady of Luxury (2-1) expecting to mix it up early and often. Trends The track was much more honest last week, with speed holding nicely, though stalker/closers still had a fair go of it too. Best Bet FLAT AWESOME JENNY Number 1 Morning Line (5-2) Best Bet Overview #1 FLAT AWESOME JENNY (5-2): Stretch runner looked good winning off last time at the…

Play of the Day Race Date November 14, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 3 Overview A low-level N2L with a group of meek locals and a newcomer in #5 ZERO POINT ZERO (7-2) who seems primed to make a big dent. Pace There’s not a ton here, as #1 should be going from the rail, which will put #5 ZERO POINT ZERO (7-2) in the perfect outside pressing spot. Trends After the first full week of racing, it’s safe to say the track has tilted towards stalker/closers, as speed has had a hard time lasting. Best Bet ZERO POINT ZERO Number 5 Morning Line (7-2) Best Bet Overview…

Play of the Day Race Date November 13, 2021 Track Churchill Downs Race 8 Overview An MSW for 2yos that is there for the taking, with a runner in #5 MASK PATROL (4-1) who looks poised for a breakthrough. Pace There should be some here, as several of these lightly raced 2yos are stretching out to a one-turn mile, which can often create fast fractions. Trends After the first full week of racing, it’s safe to say the track has tilted towards stalker/closers, as speed has had a hard time lasting. Best Bet MASK PATROL Number 5 Morning Line (4-1) Best Bet Overview #5 MASK PATROL (4-1): Walsh…