Handicapping

Date: 4/21/2023 Featured Track/Race: Keeneland – Race 4   Race overview: An uninspiring MSW routing on the main for f/ms, with a 2-1 ML favorite (#1), who hasn’t been seen since 3/13/22.   Pace: Expect things to be moderate up front, as there’s not a lot of real speed signed on, in a race where a lot of these are suspect at the distance as well. Trends: The main track has tilted towards speed (which is nothing unusual), though there has been no obvious biases in terms of running styles or paths, while the turf has been on fair side.   Best Play: #4 MAGIC PALACE (9-2): Tactical…

Date:  4/20/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 5      Race overview:  A seemingly below average N1X sprinting on turf, with very little trusted, proven form to go on.       Pace:  It’s a turf sprint, so there will be plenty of it, so look for someone with a rating gear that can pick the speed off in the stretch.      Trends:  The main track has tilted towards speed (which is nothing unusual), though there has been no obvious biases in terms of running styles or paths, while the turf has been on fair side.       Best Play:  #9 PEACH COBBLER (7-2): (turf only):…

    Date:  4/16/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 2      Race overview:  A marathon N1X for f/ms going 1 ½ miles on the turf, with an average group of Americans against Euro invader #5 KISS YOU LATER (9-5), who has G3 form.       Pace:  Expect a crawl early and a sprint late, which should only flatter #5 KISS YOU LATER (9-5).      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #5 KISS YOU LATER (9-5) (turf only): Newcomer flashed G3 form in Europe and is now with Clement, who is 27% off this elongated +180-day layoff, she gets Lasix, her trip (1 ½ miles),…

  “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/15/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 8      Race overview:  A deep and competitive renewal of the Giant’s Causeway for fillies & mares sprinting 5 1/2Fs on the turf.       Pace:  It’s a turf sprint, so expect some heat up front, as several in here want to motor early, which means the stalkers/closers should have a big chance in the lane.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #11 LITTLE JEWEL (8-1) (turf only): BC Turf winner Little Mike’s little sis is all sprint, and was awesome winning her last two…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/14/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 5      Race overview:  A strong N1X routing on the turf for 3yo fillies, with several different ways to go.       Pace:  It doesn’t look overly fast, but also there’s no one in here who looks loose on the lead either, so expect a bunched group early and a sprint off the far turn.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #1 MRS. ASTOR (6-1) (turf only): Impressive GP filly won against the grain of the turf, as rallying from off the pace isn’t ideal, but…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/13/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 8      Race overview:  A typically strong N2X routing on the grass, with several who can win, but none with the upside of #7 STRONG QUALITY (9-2), who looked awesome winning his turf bow in February at Gulfstream.       Pace:  There’s very little here on paper, so being able to lay close is preferred, and it wouldn’t be surprised if #7 STRONG QUALITY (9-2) finds himself walking on the lead, as he’s as fast as anyone here.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #7 STRONG…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/12/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 1      Race overview:  A mixed bag 25k claimer sprinting 7Fs on the main, with several who come in off Tapeta form at TP while showing very little dirt form, which is not the case with #3 EDGEE ANGEL (2-1), who was 2nd in her only start at Kee.       Pace:  It doesn’t look too hot at all, as most of these want to stalk or come from behind, so being able to lay close early seems imperative.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #3…

“PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date:  4/8/2023      Featured Track/Race:   Keeneland – Race 5      Race overview:  A strong renewal of the G3 Commonwealth, with several legit graded stakes sprinters, but it’s the “router,” #7 RUN CLASSIC (3-1) who has been begging for a cutback to shine.       Pace:  Oddly enough, there’s not much here for a graded stakes sprint, so you better be close early.      Trends:  N/A       Best Play:  #7 RUN CLASSIC (3-1): Talented sort has been routing but his best lifetime race was right here at this trip, he brings plenty of foundation for…

Happy Wood Memorial Day!  Today we get our first big race day in New York with four graded stakes races co-headlined by the Grade I Carter and the Grade II Wood Memorial. The late Pick 5 and Pick 4 sequences at Aqueduct are pretty tough with a state bred maiden filly and mare turf sprint carded in between the Carter and Wood. Wouldn’t all stakes Pick 4 made sense. Oh well, good luck to all!  Race 8 – The Carter Handicap  – Grade I  Seven Furlongs on the Dirt for Four Year Olds and Upward  Today’s Flavor: Winner of four in a row since George Weaver took over…