Handicapping

Play of the Day Race Date April 22, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 5 Overview A compact 20k claimer with plenty of speed. Pace As mentioned, it looks hot, as three of the five entered want to motor early on. Trends I’m going against the track a bit, as speed has done very well during the meet, but this one has the look of a race begging to fall apart. Best Bet ERV’S WENCH Number 1 Morning Line (5-2) Best Bet Overview #1 ERV’S WENCH (5-2): Stalker ran well against better at GP and should love all the speed she gets to settle off of here. Picks & Plays…

Play of the Day Race Date April 21, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 5 Overview A non-descript MSW for 3yos that looks there for the taking if someone should produce a breakthrough run. Pace It should be honest, as there are several lightly-raced runners, several who are stretching out and seeing a clubhouse turn for the first time as well. Trends It’s tough to see any visible trends on the turf, as they usually just card a few a day (during the week), but for the most part the course can be demanding, at least in routes, and therefore I tend to side with stalker/closers. Best Bet SNOW HOUSE…

Play of the Day Race Date April 18, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 5 Overview A very modest 50k starter-allowance that looks ripe for a fresh new face, and #5 MY CANDY GIRL (9-2) clearly fits the bill. Pace It looks strong, as several have shown early initiative and a want to be on or near the early lead. Trends It’s tough to see any visible trends on the turf, as they usually just card a few a day (during the week), but for the most part the course can be demanding, at least in routes, and therefore I tend to side with stalker/closers. Best Bet MY CANDY GIRL…

Play of the Day Race Date April 17, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 5 Overview A deep and competitive starter-allowance, though one that could be ripe for a fresh new face. Pace It looks solid enough, as there are more than a few that have shown speed and want to be close to the lead early. Trends It’s tough to see any visible trends on the turf, as they usually just card a few a day (during the week), but for the most part the course can be demanding, at least in routes, and therefore I tend to side with stalker/closers. Best Bet SUMMER PALACE Number 4 Morning Line…

Play of the Day Race Date April 16, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 8 Overview A wide, wide open N1X turf sprint where value abounds. Pace It looks average, for a turf sprint, which means #6 SENORA ROMA (8-1) could control things with an aggressive Geroux aboard. Trends It’s tough to see any visible trends on the turf, as they usually just card a few a day (during the week), but for the most part the course can be demanding, at least in routes, and therefore I tend to side with stalker/closers. Best Bet SENORA ROMA Number 6 Morning Line (8-1) Best Bet Overview #6 SENORA ROMA (8-1) (turf…

Play of the Day Race Date April 15, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 9 Overview A modest MSW for turfers and a race that looks there for the taking. Pace It looks relatively pedestrian, with a few to the outside who should be forwardly placed, so things could be chaotic nearing the line. Trends It’s tough to see any visible trends on the turf, as they usually just card a few a day (during the week), but for the most part the course can be demanding, and therefore I tend to side with stalker/closers. Best Bet ZZA ZZA ZOOM Number 5 Morning Line (20-1) Best Bet Overview #5 ZZA…

Play of the Day Race Date April 14, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 5 Overview A solid N1X on the turf, though there looks like a favorite ready for a big breakthrough. Pace It looks average, at best, so expect a bunched sprint at the end. Trends It’s tough to see any visible trends on the turf, as they usually just card a few a day (during the week), but for the most part the course can be demanding, and therefore I tend to side with stalker/closers. Best Bet LINNY KATE Number 5 Morning Line (3-1) Best Bet Overview #5 LINNY KATE (3-1) (tur for dirt): Brown filly has…

Play of the Day Race Date April 11, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 9 Overview A solid MSW with a slew of lightly raced, well-bred runners with plenty of upside and potential. Pace It should be honest, especially with so many lightly raced runners still figuring the game out, and a several firsters entered as well. Trends It’s tough to see any visible trends on the turf, as they usually just card a few a day (during the week), but for the most part the course can be demanding, and therefore I tend to side with stalker/closers. Best Bet DANCEFORTHEEMPIRE Number 4 Morning Line (7-2) Best Bet Overview #4…

Play of the Day Race Date April 10, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 10 Overview A compact and weak renewal of the G1 Jenny Wiley, though it’s very evenly-matched. Pace It’s non-existent, with the exception of #3 JULIET FOXTROT (7-2), who is loose as can be over a group of stalker/closers. Trends There’s only been three days of racing, but both surfaces played very fair over the weekend. Best Bet JULIET FOXTROT Number 3 Morning Line (7-2) Best Bet Overview #3 JULIET FOXTROT (7-2): Classy mare has never been this kind, but this isn’t a true G1 renewal, so she hit hard here, and has a huge race flow…

Play of the Day Race Date April 09, 2021 Track Keeneland Race 4 Overview A full field of 30k MCL’ers, though with very little that inspire, and an MSW dropper who looks spotted to score. Pace There should be plenty, as several have flashed speed early, and Ward firster #4 Ollie’s Gold (3-1) also figures to be motoring. Trends There’s only been three days of racing, but both surfaces played very fair over the weekend. Best Bet BERNADETTE THE JET Number 1 Morning Line (3-1) Best Bet Overview #1 BERNADETTE THE JET (3-1): Motion returnee (18% off this elongated layoff) also brings in Peterson, so you can surmise…