Handicapping

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/20/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  9       Race overview  A strong renewal of the G3 Dogwood for 3yofs at 7 furlongs.       Pace  It looks honest enough, as both #1 Echo Sound (9-5) and #8 Mega Mil (20-1) want to motor early.      Trends  A fast main track has played very fair when it’s been fast, including Wednesday and Thursday, with winners coming from everywhere.      Best Play  #4 RAGTIME (2-1): Another terrible ML, as she just drubbed #1 in the G1 Test at…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/19/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  6       Race overview  A wildly deep and competitive 16k claimer for fm3up at 6 ½ Fs.       Pace  There’s not much here, which means #6 ALTERED SHOT (5-1) should enjoy a big tactical edge, either on, or just off the early pace.      Trends  A fast main track played very fair the first three days of the meet (it was sloppy Sunday), and again on Wednesday as well.      Best Play  #6 ALTERED SHOT (5-1): Class dropper and…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/18/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  3       Race overview  A deep and competitive 62.5k claimer for 3up at 7 ½ furlongs.       Pace  There’s very little here on paper, with no true sprint speed, so being able to lay close—at a very tricky distance too—seems key.      Trends  A fast main track played very fair the first three days of the meet (it was sloppy Sunday), with winners coming from everywhere.      Best Play  #8 GUNNER BAY (5-2): Tactical sort has been running fast…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/17/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  4       Race overview  A deep and competitive 16k claimer for 3up at 1-mile.       Pace  Things look on the tepid side early, as there’s not a lot of burners in here, and there are several with no speed at all, so a tactical gear will surely come in handy.      Trends  A fast main track played very fair the first three days of the meet (it was sloppy Sunday), with winners coming from everywhere.      Best Play  #7…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/14/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  8       Race overview   A strong AOC for 3up at 6 furlongs on the main track.       Pace  There’s a ton entered, as more than a few want to be involved early and often, so a tactical gear seems imperative.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #8 ANCIENT WORLD (7-2): Class-dropping stalker drew perfectly, gets back to the main, finds gets the competitive relief he needs, and has the perfect running style for this speedy group.      Bet…

    “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                   Date 9/13/25 Featured track Churchill Downs Race number 10   Race overview A very meek renewal of the 300k Open Mind for fm3up at 6 ½ Fs.   Pace There’s not much here at all, which means being able to lay close early seems imperative. Trends N/A Best Play #6 IMPEL (5-2): Tactical router cuts back and drew perfectly, has a recency edge on the ML favorite #4 Positano Sunset (2-1), and, most importantly, should be comfortably ahead of her and her lack of speed on the track as well. Bet Types Aggressive WP bet and single in…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/12/25      Featured track  Churchill Downs       Race number  6       Race overview  A predictably deep and competitive 30k starter-allowance for 3up at 1-mile on the main track.       Pace  There’s not much here, which suggests that #2 Laughnowcrylater (3-1) should be able to shake loose early.      Trends  N/A      Best Play  #2 LAUGHNOWCRYLATER (3-1): Class dropper dueled in an N1X last time and paid the price, so this group should be much more to his liking, and with the lead there for the taking, he looks…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/7/25      Featured track  Kentucky Downs       Race number  2       Race overview  A seemingly very weak MSW for 2yofs at 1-mile.       Pace  It’s a full field of lightly-raced runners, so you’d think it would be honest, and potentially crowded towards the front.      Trends  Rain was rumored to be all around for Saturday, so check the conditions and how things player out before taking the plunge.      Best Play  #2 INFINITE SKY (5-2): Godolphin blueblood was a closing 3rd after a slow start on debut, has…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/6/25      Featured track  Kentucky Downs       Race number  12       Race overview  A seemingly very weak MSW for 2yos at 1-mile.       Pace  On paper, it looks like #4 SHE’S ON A ROLL (6-1) can control things on the stretchout, which might be all she needs for a breakthrough.      Trends  The rails are (apparently) coming down for the big Saturday card, which means fresh and firm ground on the inside, and in turn, means those inside paths could be a paved highway for speed.      Best…

      “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau                        Date  9/4/25      Featured track  Kentucky Downs       Race number  7       Race overview  A modest (for the track/condition) AOC for fm3up at 1-mile.       Pace  It looks honest, as there are a few who want to be close, though they won’t be going too quickly, so tactical speed seems a must.      Trends  Last year it was all speed all the time, but things have tempered this year, and with the rails at 25’, it should be a level playing field.      Best Play  #9 MALLEYMOO (7-2): Brown…