Nadeau: Churchill Play of the Day Thurs 5.4.23
| “PLAY of the DAY” by Brian Nadeau | |
| Date: | 5/4/2023 |
| Featured Track/Race: | Churchill Downs – Race 7 |
| Race overview: | A deep 50k MCL with more than a few possibilities, though none have the upside of MSW dropper #8 KIKI KRAZY (7-2) |
| Pace: | It’s a full field, so it should be hot and contested, which means a rating gear is preferred. |
| Trends: | It’s still early in the meet, but the main track has tilted towards off-the-pace types, as speed has struggled to hold, for the most part. |
| Best Play: | #8 KIKI KRAZY (7-2): MSW dropper has had three chances against tons better with middling form, so this makes sense, and it’s not by coincidence it happens Derby Week either. |
| Bet Types: | Aggressive WP bet, while getting adding value by singling in the middle Pk5/Pk4, and to kick off the late Pk5 as well. |
| Meet/POD Stats: | CD Meet: 10-4-1-2 ($1.87/$5.28 ROI through 5/1)
CD POD: 1-0-1-0 (X ROI through 5/1)
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