Happy Fourth of July!

Happy 250^th Birthday to the good old USA! Today’s card today is led by Belmont Oaks and Belmont Derby, and we also have the 140^th renewal of the historic Suburban Handicap which has been won by many all-time greats including Kelso, Forego, Mineshaft, and Easy Goer.

Trivia question: Who was hailed as the “hero of the Battle of Saratoga” for the Continentals?

Race 7 – The Belmont Oaks Invitational – Grade I

One Mile and One Furlong on the Inner Turf for Three Year Old Fillies

1. Just Aloof: Just missed in the Edgewood where she sat a perfect pocket trip and then was on the short end of a four way win photo (88 Beyer). Similar trip two back in the Appalachian where she was out finished (87 Beyer). Franco rides as Prat goes elsewhere. Maybe a piece.
2. Time to Dream: In the Wonder Again she came with a run but flattened, (85 Beyer) finishing fourth. Both career wins are over this track including the PG Johnson. Zayas is in the irons as Irad is serving days. Has finished behind several of today’s foes. Passing.
3. Kensington Lane: Irish shipper comes here off a 5^th place finish in the Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh where she was prominent but couldn’t close the deal as she finished behind Abashiri. Two back she won the Group 3 Athasi Stakes. Dangerous at a price.
4. Faithful Departed: Most recent effort was a win in the Regret Stakes at Churchill (91 Beyer) where she won with a stalking trip. Two back she defeated allowance company. Bullet work in Kentucky leading into this. Jose Ortiz stays aboard. Looks live.
5. Storm’s Wake: Had a wide trip in the Edgewood but still ran on for second behind Faithful Departed (86 Beyer). Has shown that she can compete in this division with a win in the Appalachian (89 Beyer). She’ll be running late.
6. Fitz Right: Has won all three races this year including the Wonder Again over this track last month (89 Beyer). Prat rides. Look for her to gain position early and move from there. Knows how to finish off a race. Contender.
7. Carmensita: Comes back off a third place in an allowance race for Horatio DePaz (77 Beyer) that was her first race after coming from Argentina. Lasix OFF. Passing.
8. Abashiri: Charlie Appleby ships in this Frankel filly. In the Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas she got to the front but was swamped by multiple Group 1 winner Precise. That was an impressive performance in just her third career race. William Buick comes in for the mount. More distance should suit. Charlie Appleby has a 32% win rate, with 72% of his starters finishing in the money on the NYRA circuit over the past five years. The Pick.
9. Ultimate Love: Showed promise last Fall and was a decent fifth in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (80 Beyer). Was off for six months and then just missed in the Hilltop Stakes at Preakness (80 Beyer) in her return. Today is second off the long layoff. Will need to improve.
10. Imagionthelady: Two back she was second in the Appalachian to Storm’s Wake (88 Beyer) and then turned the tables on that one in the Edgewood (89 Beyer). Steadily improving Beyers for this Brendan Walsh trainee. Tough outside post on the Inner Turf. Exotics.

Picks 8-3-4-6

Race 9 – The Belmont Derby Invitational – Grade I

One Mile and One Furlong on the Mellon Turf for Three Year Olds

1. Blackmail: In the Pennine Ridge he sat a pocket trip but West End Kid moved first and he couldn’t catch that winner (84 Beyer). Two back he won the Woodhaven (85 Beyer). Maybe.
2. Bottas: Was a decent third in the Pennine Ridge with a rail trip and came running once he was in the clear (83 Beyer). Contends with a move forward. Possible at price.
3. Remember Mamba: Won his first three career starts including the Grade 3 Transylvania and was second in the American Turf where he closed (94 Beyer). Race shape should suit as he gets some speed to run into. Hits the board.
4. Third Coast: Has won two of three starts including the Jersey Derby at Monmouth where he showed a nice turn of foot (80 Beyer). Tough assignment but he could be live at a price. Exotics.
5. Turf Star: Won the James Murphy Stakes at Laurel where she showed a nice quickening (77 Beyer). Hasn’t shown improvement so far in his three year old season. Passing.
6. Pacific Avenue: Raced in Dubai this winter where he was second to Title Role in the Jumeriah Two Thousand Guineas on a short two week turnaround. Most recently in the Irish 2000 Guineas he came from off the pace but was no match for Gstaad. No shame there as Gstaad would be 3/5 against this field, but you get 6-1 on the ML for this Godolphin colt. William Buick is up. Dubawi colt gets class relief and the extra ground that he should prefer. The Pick.
7. Tieranogue: After breaking his maiden on dirt Brendan Walsh moved this colt to the turf in the Auburn Stakes at Churchill where she was a solid second (79 Beyer). Passing.
8. West End Kid: Has won three straight with the most recent being the Pennine Ridge where he leveled off nicely (87 Beyer). His wins looked the same, he sits just off leader then moves to take over when asked. Should be able to press the pace again from this outside post. Using.
9. Title Role: Won two races in Dubai and then was best in the Group 2 German 2000 Guineas in May as he hugged the rail. Bested Pacific Avenue back in February. Piece of it.

10: Touch of Fire: Won his last two starts including the Audubon Stakes where drew off as the odds on favorite (84 Beyer). Prat takes over for Irad. Post 10 isn’t great. Mixed feelings.

Picks 6-8-9-3

Trivia Answer: Benedict Arnold was the “hero of Saratoga” as he led a charge that broke the British lines. Things went south from there for Major General Arnold.