HAPPY DERBY DAY !

Today is the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby and all the pomp and circumstance that goes along with it. The forecast for rain once again on Derby Day so it looks like an off track at Churchill Downs.

Trivia Question: D. Wayne Lukas has his fifty-first Kentucky Derby starter in the form of American Promise – it’s a race he has won four times. How many active trainers have a graded stakes race at Churchill Downs named for them? D. Wayne, that’s who. Who was Lukas’s first Derby winner?

Race 11 The Turf Classic – Grade I

One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf for Four Year Olds and Upward

1. Integration: Has finishing second both starts this year. In the Pegasus Turf (102 Beyer) he looked like the winner at the sixteenth pole but was collared in the last couple of jumps. Last month in the Makers Mark Mile he was best of the rest as Carl Spackler drew off. The mile may have been too sharp for him. Ran very well in his two off track races. The Pick.

2. Gold Phoenix: So Cal shipper cuts back to nine furlongs after a couple mile and a half races. Takes on tougher today and goes shorter. What’s the old axiom – use East Coast turf horses shipping west – not the reverse. Passing.

3. Highway Robber: Ran an uninspiring seventh in Dubai in the Group 2 City of Gold Stakes. That was his first start since a win at Keeneland in the Sycamore going a mile and a half last October. This is a quick turnaround shipping back from Dubai. Hard to select.

4. Redistricting: An underperformer for Chad Brown had a perfect trip in the Muniz Classic at Fair Grounds but was one paced in the lane (91 Beyer). Today is the second race off a four month layoff so maybe he needed a tightener. Lean against.

5. Idratherbeblessed: Has a quick two week turnaround after setting the early pace and fading in the mile and a half Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland. That followed a wire job in the Muniz Classic (97 Beyer). Has a history of being early pace – should be up front again. Know him early.

6. Taking Candy: His last start was a winning one in the Fair Grounds Stakes as he wore down his rivals in the lane and then was strongest late (95 Beyer). Hasn’t finished out of the money in his last six starts – with three wins. Consistent performer. Exotics.

7. Running Bee: Chad Brown trainee has won his last two starts including the Tampa Bay Stakes last out where he dropped out the back and finished with a flourish (100 Beyer). Had a freshening since that win in February. Prat stays aboard which is major plus. He’s in great form and should sit a trip just off the speed. Tired in one soft track performance. Hits the board.

8. Cameo Performance: Was impressive in the Muniz as he was the only horse that made up significant ground on the two leaders, finishing a close up third (96 Beyer). That was his first start in seven months and his first as a four year old. Improving colt.

9. Mercante: Performed well this winter at Turfway Park where he won in second allowance condition and was very good in out dueling the leader in the Grade III Kentucky Club Classic a month ago (101 Beyer). Let’s see if he can reproduce that form on the turf. Show me.

10. Spirit of St Louis: In the Muniz Classic at Fairgrounds, he was wide most of the way and didn’t make much headway (95 Beyer). That performance followed a big time win in the Pegasus Turf where he came running late to just catch Integration (102 Beyer). Hits the board.

11. Brilliant Berti: Will be scratched as he ran Thursday.

12. Gigante: Has three raced three times already this year and was strong in the Muniz Memorial where was out finished (97 Beyer). Has not won at nine furlongs in six tries. Minor award.

Picks 1-10-7-6

Race 12 The Kentucky Derby – Grade I

One Mile and a Quarter on the Dirt For Three Year Olds

It appears that we are likely to get a muddy or sloppy track at Churchill on Saturday. There is not much off track form in the field from the contenders. There are the old trusty Tomlinson figs and a number of entrants exceed 420 on that scale for a wet track including Citizen Bull, Journalism, American Promise, Sovereignty, Sandman, and Burnham Square amongst others.

1. Citizen Bull: Two year old champion set the pace in the Santa Anita Derby but was no match for Journalism, finishing fourth. Does he want more ground? His best race was in the Robert Lewis at one mile (98 Beyer). Baffert will want this one sent from the rail. Cannot endorse.

2. Neoequos: In the Fountain of Youth, he tried to take them the whole way, held for third, but was no match for Sovereignty. In the Florida Derby she attended the pace and took the lead but couldn’t hold off Tappan Street (89 Beyer). Luis Saez up as Prat moves to Baeza. Passing.

3. Final Gambit: Both career wins are on the all-weather at Turfway and runs here off a win in the Jeff Ruby where he mowed them all down (90 Beyer). Brad Cox and Juddmonte are great connections, but I wonder about Final Gambit in this spot. Looking elsewhere.

4. Rodriguez: SCRATCHED with a minor foot bruise – connections are pointing to Pimlico.

5. American Promise: American Promise runs here off a front end score in the Virginia Derby (95 Beyer) as he drew off over a speed favoring surface. Lukas has suggested a stalking/pressing trip given all the speed to his inside. But will this Justify colt respond to that strategy. Both career wins have on the pace. Mixed signals.

6. Admire Daytona: Japanese bred winner of the UAE Derby earned a 109 Timeform rating – that rating translates to a low to mid-80s Beyer per Randy Moss. Breeding suggests he would have speed than stamina with Drefong as the sire. Would be a big surprise.

7. Luxor Cafe: Winner of four straight in Japan he handily defeated Admire Daytona two back and while it is hard to figure exact speed figs Randy Moss indicates that his best determination is that best performances this has had translates to about a 94 Beyer. Underneath in exotics.

8. Journalism: Clear favorite after posting multiple triple digit Beyers with a 102 in the Santa Anita Derby and a 108 in the San Felipe. Stalker/pace presser type hasn’t missed a beat this year. Overcame some trouble in the Santa Anita Derby. Race flow should assist as he can tuck in behind speed drawn to his inside and save ground while maintaining position. At 3-1 he is an overlay – he is by far the best horse in the field. The Pick.

9. Burnham Square: Gelding won the Blue Grass by a nose as he closed into a fast pace (96 Beyer) and just caught East Avenue. Won in a similar manner in the Holy Bull (90 Beyer). Improving colt has won three of his four races this year with increasing Beyers and he should get the pace setup he wants. Exotics.

10. Grande: Lightly raced colt was a good second in the Wood where he was game in the lane but couldn’t run down Rodriguez (97 Beyer). Has room to improve as this will be his fourth career race. Johnny V is back in the irons. Could get first run at the leaders. Player.

11. Flying Mohawk: After winning two races on turf he went to the Jeff Ruby on the polytrack where he made a sustained run to get up for second (84 Beyer). A turf horse who earned points via a second in a polytrack race. Blinkers come OFF. No thanks.

12. East Avenue: Should be up on the pace as this one rebounded in the Blue Grass he went straight to the lead and was just nipped at the wire (96 Beyer). He will be on the gas from the drop. Can he take the field a mile and a quarter with other competition up front? Not likely.

13. Publisher: A maiden in the Kentucky Derby – yup. Finished second in the Arkansas Derby (95 Beyer) where he was at the back of the pack and ran into a pace that fell apart. Had a similar trip in the Rebel Stakes but he didn’t show the same turn of foot. Needs to be faster.

14. Tiztastic: In the Southwest and Rebel Stakes he ran well but was no threat to win. Then in the Louisiana Derby sat well off a hot pace and made a sustained move over the final six furlongs to win comfortably (95 Beyer). We know he can get the distance. Not convinced.

15. Render Judgement: Broke his maiden over the Churchill track but hasn’t won since. In the Virginia Derby he was left chasing a loose on the lead American Promise (83 Beyer). Followed that up with a so-so Blue Grass (90 Beyer). Can’t see it.

16. Coal Battle: In the Arkansas Derby he sat off a speed duel and got first run at the leaders, got to the lead but didn’t change leads smoothly and Sandman rolled by (88 Beyer). Was strong in the Rebel Stakes as he also closed for the win (91 Beyer). Not fast enough.

17. Sandman: Competed in all three Oaklawn based preps and hit the board in all each with off the pace trips. Was at the back of the pack in the Arkansas Derby and got a torrid pace to run into and went by the entire field (99 Beyer). Some Derby horses attract too much attention – this year it’s Sandman. He should get a strong pace again to attack. Underlay.

18. Sovereignty: Mott trainee came late from mid-pack in the Florida Derby as he was gaining on Tappan Street but ran out of ground (92 Beyer). Similar type trip in the Fountain of Youth where he won (95 Beyer). More ground should suit but coming from way back is tough in a big field. Is he tactical enough to stay closer? That’s the question. Hits the board.

19. Chunk of Gold: Sat mid-pack in the Louisiana Derby with a rail trip and tipped out at the quarter pole to take the lead but was out finished by Tiztastic (92 Beyer). That was his third consecutive second place finish. Hasn’t won on the dirt yet. His only career win was in a restricted maiden race on the all-weather track at Turfway. Passing.

20. Owen Almighty: Tampa Bay Derby winner used his early speed to establish position up and made every pole a winning one (93 Beyer). He came back in the Blue Grass and had to attend the pace but he had no excuse as he got leg weary (90 Beyer). Connections indicate they will try and rate this one from this post. Is that what he wants to do- rate? Too much to overcome.

21. Baeza: Drew in with the Rodriguez scratch. He will get plenty of attention off a very good Santa Anita Derby where he led in the lane and was game even after as Journalism collared him (101 Beyer). Prat will ride. Post is tough – but he is talented. Possible piece of the pie.

Picks 8-10-18-9

Trivia Answer: Lukas won his first Derby in 1988 with Winning Colors. She is only one of three fillies to win the Run for the Roses.