Happy Derby Day!

We have a very competitive renewal of the Kentucky Derby as evidenced by a lukewarm 4-1 ML favorite (Renegade). Frankly, a win by half of this field would not be that big of a surprise.

Trivia Question: Why is the Derby called “The Run for the Roses”?

Race 11 The Turf Classic – Grade I

One Mile and One Furlong on the Turf for Four Year Olds and Upward        

1. Corruption: Runs here after a second in the Pan American where he was collared late by Far Bridge (for the second year in a row) and earned a 97 Beyer. Might see a similar trip today, but there is speed drawn to the outside in this field. Too much to ask.
2. Dashman: In the Pan American he pressed Corruption from the outside but was flat in the final furlong (90 Beyer). Faces some tough ones here. Passing.
3. Asbury Park: Frankel colt comes back to the track for the first time since he won the Belmont Jockey Club Derby Invitational (87 Beyer) last Fall. He’s good but will need to move forward to contend in his first race in seven months. It’s Chad/Prat, so ignore at your own peril.
4. Program Trading: In the Pegasus Turf he rode the rail and got through but was no match for the top ones. Had a clean trip in Muniz Memorial but was outkicked (96 Beyer). Third race of the form cycle. Last win was in this race two years ago. Blinkers ON. Lasix OFF. Underneath.
5. Mercante: Just missed in this race in 2025 but his form went sideways in the second half of the year. Came back in March at Turfway on the poly and couldn’t finish off the Kentucky Cup (92 Beyer). Second race off the layoff. Would be a surprise.
6. Rhetorical: Won four of five starts in 2025 including a win in the Turf Mile at Keeneland (101 Beyer). In Breeders’ Cup Mile he led but couldn’t hold off Notable Speech (99 Beyer). Started 2026 in the Markers Mark Mile but couldn’t catch Zulu Kingdom (95 Beyer). Second off the layoff and should be on or near the pace. Win candidate.
7. Gold Phoenix: Eight year old gelding cuts back after finding success going longer including a win in the San Luis Rey at twelve furlongs (96 Beyer). Chance for a piece.
8. Astronomer: Didn’t fire in the Frank Kilroe Mile and then failed to get it done in an optional claiming race (87 Beyer). Seven year old hasn’t won since August 2023. Lasix OFF. Passing.
9. Test Score: Last time we saw this colt he won the Pegasus Turf where he had a nice burst in the final sixteenth (97 Beyer). Hit the board in seven of eight starts as a three year old last year including a win in the Grade I Belmont Derby (90 Beyer). Finishes off races. The Pick.
10. Make Me King: Won a Group 2 at Doha this winter as he out finished the field. Then ran in the Group 1 Dubai Turf where he finished fourth after some traffic issues. Mixed feelings.

Picks 9-6-3-4

Race 12 The Kentucky Derby – Grade I

One Mile and a Quarter on the Dirt For Three Year Olds

1. Renegade: In the Sam F. Davis he outdueled his competition to get the win (93 Beyer). Then moved to the Arkansas Derby where he came from off the pace to win by open lengths (98 Beyer). Tough post but he’ll drop out the back and save ground. Underlay as the ML favorite given his figs do not stand out against this field, in fact there are several faster horses to date per Mr. Beyer. Irad choses to ride here over other options. Exotics only.
2. Albus: Broke his maiden and then ran in the Wood Memorial where he came from well off the pace to get the top prize (83 Beyer). Will need a significant improvement to contend.
3. Intrepido: Finished a distant fourth in the Santa Anita Derby where he was four wide on both turns (85 Beyer). Two back he was a decent second in the Robert Lewis going a mile where he couldn’t get the leader (89 Beyer). Not fast enough.
4. Litmus Test: Baffert trainee won the Los Al Futurity at 3/5 (96 Beyer) last December. Then in the Rebel he set the pace but was no match for the winner. In the Arkansas Derby he broke poorly, was wide and then was empty. Baffert puts Blinkers back ON. Early pace.
5. Right to Party: Deep closer came on late in the Gotham to hit the board (81 Beyer) and then took advantage of a collapsing pace to finish second in the Wood. Could fill out a super.
6. Commandment: Hasn’t done a thing wrong this year as swept the Gulfstream preps. In the Fountain of Youth he out finished Chief Wallabee (101 Beyer) and in the Florida Derby he just caught The Puma at the wire (101 Beyer). Broke his maiden at Churchill. Knows how to finish off a race and won the strongest Derby prep in the form of the Florida Derby. Saez takes over for Prat who moves to Emerging Market. Win candidate.
7. Danon Bourbon: Kentucky bred/Japanese based runner is undefeated in three career starts. Hard to sort these Japanese based runners but he has been impressive against what he has faced. Is from the first crop of Maxfield and is out of a Tapit mare. One of these years a Japanese based horse will the Derby, but I don’t think this is the year. Demand a price.
8. So Happy: Won the Santa Anita Derby with a stalk and pounce move (100 Beyer) besting Potente who is 20-1 today. Should be up on a hot pace. Normally the Santa Anita Derby winner would be one of the Derby favorites, but not this year. He will be a price if you like him.
9. The Puma: Won the Tampa Bay Derby even though he was five wide and lugged in the (94 Beyer). In the Florida Derby he took the lead at the quarter pole after coming from off the pace only to be caught in the final jump by Commandment (100 Beyer). In my view the Florida Derby is the key prep race and I’ll key my play around the top three in that race. Major overlay at the ML 10-1 price. He has faced adversity in his starts which should help as a foundation for running against 19 other competitors. He is a game horse who should be mid-pack behind an expected hot pace and where he can make first move. Castellano remains in the irons. The Pick.
10. Wonder Dean: Japanese bred colt earned a berth here by winning the UAE Derby as he made wore down the leader and got clear in the final sixteenth. This would be a surprise.
11. Incredibolt: Showed his quality in winning the Street Sense Stakes over this track last Fall. Flopped in the Holy Bull but rebounded in the Virgina Derby with a convincing four length win (88 Beyer). Not the strongest field at Colonial Downs, but he was visually impressive. Has won twice at Churchill. Could get a piece.
12. Chief Wallabee: Was probably the best in the Fountain of Youth where he was wide and only lost by a neck to Commandment (100 Beyer). In the Florida Derby he had a nice stalking trip in the pocket but couldn’t quite keep up with The Puma (99 Beyer) as Commandment came from off the pace to get the Win. Blinkers ON. Legit contender for the great Bill Mott.
13. Silent Tactic: Will scratch with a minor foot issue per Mark Casse.
14. Potente: Baffert trainee won the San Felipe and then was handled by So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby (95 Beyer) after setting the pace. Should be up front.
15. Emerging Market: He went from a maiden win at Tampa to the Louisiana Derby where he got by Pavlovian late (90 Beyer). Now he faces 19 competitors with only two races under his belt. It’s a big ask, but he is talented and Prat chose to ride here. Could get a slice.
16. Pavlovian: Won in the Sunland Derby (87 Beyer) and then finished a close second in the Louisiana Derby where he was bested late by Emerging Market (90 Beyer). Will need a substantial improvement in his eleventh career race to contend. Passing.
17. Six Speed: Dubai based colt has run at Meydan in all five of his career races. The UAE 2000 Guineas won and then set the pace in the UAE Derby but was caught by Wonder Dean who came with a strong sustained run. Early speed.
18. Further Ado: His Blue Grass was the visually best looking prep race and he has the top Beyer (106) as he exploded in that race to win by eleven lengths. His best two performances have been at Keeneland, so is he a Keeneland specialist? He did win the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill last Fall. Will need to avoid getting cooked on a hot pace but has Johnny V. up as Irad chosen to ride Renegade. Look for an outside pace pressing trip from this post. Gets a piece.
19. Golden Tempo: Ran in all three of the Fair Grounds based preps, winning the Lecomte and hitting the board in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby (88 Beyer). Would need to significantly improve to win, but he’ll be running late. Chance for a minor award.
20. Fulleffort: Will scratch after bone chip was found in his left hind leg.
21. Great White: Draws in off the AE list. Had two wins this winter at Turfway Park on the all-weather surface including the John Battaglia Stakes (84 Beyer). Needs to prove it on dirt after a flop in the Blue Grass. Passing.
22. Ocelli: Draws is off the AE list. Maiden who runs here off a third in the Wood where he came from the clouds (81 Beyer). Maybe fills out a super if we get a complete pace collapse.

Also Eligibles

The Derby AE system works a bit differently than other races. Only scratches that occur by Friday morning will allow the last two AEs to draw in. Scratches occurring after that point will not be replaced by an Also Eligible horse and therefore the field will be smaller than twenty runners.

23. Robusta: Was caught in the San Felipe Stakes (89 Beyer) and then in the Santa Anita Derby he dueled on the lead but was done at the 3/16^th pole (76 Beyer). Passing.
24. Corona de Oro: Finished third in the Lexington Stakes where he set the pace but yielded in the lane (80 Beyer). Will need to be much quicker. Passing.

Picks 9-6-12-18

Trivia Answer: Draping the Derby winner in a garland of roses was formalized in 1896 when Churchill Downs President Meriwether Lewis Clark (grandson of William Clark of the Lewis and Clark Expedition) adopted the rose as the official flower of the race.