Happy Belmont Day! 

Great match-up today in the Belmont with Derby winner Sovereignty meeting Preakness winner Journalism for a rematch. If either one wins today, they become the undisputed divisional leader.  

Trivia question: If either Journalism or Sovereignty win today, they will be the first horse in seven years to win more than one leg of the Triple Crown, who was the last horse to do so? 

Race 12 – The Manhattan – Grade I 

One Mile and Three Sixteenths on the Mellon Turf for Four Year Olds and Upward 

1. 1. Endlessly: Came off a nine month layoff in the American Stakes and finished a decent third (89 Beyer). Will need to be much faster in his second start of the year.
2. 2.  Integration: Had excuses in the Turf Classic as he was blocked in the lane. Two back he was second in the Makers Mark Mile but was no match for Carl Spackler (95 Beyer) and the mile was too sharp. Needs to return to his best when he won the Red Smith (101 Beyer) and was 2nd in the Pegasus Turf (102 Beyer) last winter. Extra distance should suit and he has two triple digit Beyers on a soft or yielding course. There should be cut in the ground. The Pick.
3. Highway Robber: Was third in the Bourbon Turf Classic where he was in position but was out finished (101 Beyer). That was a good rebound after an uninspiring seventh in Dubai in the Group 2 City of Gold Stakes. Will be closing. needs his best.
4. Carson’s Run: Second best in the Ft. Marcy to Deterministic (90 Beyer). Will need to move forward to compete here. Won the Saratoga Derby over this course last summer. A step below.
5. 5. Deterministic: Dominated the Ft. Marcy last out making every pole a winning one (98 Beyer).  Has hit the board in all six career turf races. Should be on the pace but will have company and will need to get some additional Minor award.
6. 6. Spirit of St. Louis: New York bred is two for three this year for the Chad Brown barn with Grade I wins in the Pegasus Turf (102 Beyer) and in the Turf Classic on the Kentucky Derby undercard (102 Beyer) where she bested several of today’s rival. Should sit in behind the pace and get first run. Logical favorite.
7. Tucson: Didn’t make it to the track until December of his three year old season but has won three in a row culminating in a nice score in a N2X race (89 Beyer) on the turf at Keeneland – but she was green and will need to be more polished today. Lasix comes OFF. Passing.
8. 8. Corruption: Best career performance was two back in the twelve furlong Pan American where he dueled Far Bridge. Came off that loss by wiring a N2X race at Churchill going a mile and a quarter (96 Beyer). Should be sent from this outside post. Lean against.
9. 9. Far Bridge: Won going longer in the Man o’ War Stakes (99 Beyer) and the Pan American where he just got the best of Corruption (96 Beyer). Should stalk the pace. Shorter distance may be an issue. Use defensively.

Picks  2-6-5-9 

Race 13 – The Belmont Stakes – Grade I 

One Mile and a Quarter on the Dirt for Three Year Olds 

1. Hill Road: Won the Peter Pan stakes at the Big A by laying well off the pace and making a sustained run to track down the leaders (94 Beyer). That marked his first stakes win. Has only had two starts this year so there is room for improvement.  Irad lands here. Exotic plays.
2. Sovereignty: Kentucky Derby winner (102 Beyer) followed the move of Journalism at the quarter pole and showed himself to be the better closer – at least on that day over a sloppy track. Comes in fresh here after passing on the Preakness. Should be towards the rear of the pack. Certainly, can handle a wet track as well. Win candidate.
3. Rodriguez: Has scratched out of the Derby and Preakness with “minor” foot issues. His last race was a win in the Wood Memorial, where he wired the field from the rail (87 Beyer). He’s fresh but has only had a couple of works leading into this. Will be sent from the gate but should be joined by Crudo who also be going to the front. Distance and race shape works against. Yes, it’s Baffert but he will need to get ten furlongs and hold off Sovereignty et al. Pass.
4. Uncaged: Has won a Maiden and N1X claimer race and has a Beyer top of 81. Not sure what he is doing in this race off a sixth place finish in the Peter Pan. Hard pass.
5. Crudo: Two wins from three career starts with his best being last out in the Sir Barton where he wired the field (84 Beyer). Would need a huge improvement to contend. Know him early.
6. Baeza: In the Derby he was wide most of the way and was well of the pace but finished with a flurry and almost caught Journalism (101 Beyer).  Two back in the Santa Anita Derby he was a strong second as he got the lead in the lane but Journalism got the best of him (101 Beyer).  He could best the top ones with a small move forward. Contender.
7. Journalism: Closed like a freight train to win the Preakness (98 Beyer) after all kinds of traffic problems. That win followed a strong second in the Derby to Sovereignty (102 Beyer). That Preakness win was something special. He might be rare horse that performs better with a bit of trouble and that was buckets of trouble at Pimlico. Third race in five weeks but all reports are go. Can stalk or close – look for him to stalk the leaders and move on the turn at the quarter pole. Can handle off going if it comes up wet. The Pick.
8. Heart of Honor: Runner up on the UAE Derby came over from England to contest the Preakness and he was no impact fifth as he was off the pace and stayed wide and away from the various incidents down to the inside. Hard to see him being a threat here.

Picks 7-6-2-1 

Trivia Answer: Justify won the Triple Crown in 2018 and was the last horse to win more than one leg of the Triple Crown.