Happy Mother Goose Day!

Today there are four stakes at Belmont led by the Grade II Mother Goose and the listed Dwyer Stakes. The Dwyer features the return of Ted Noffey, the reigning two year old Champion.

Trivia Question: The Dwyer Stakes has been contested since 1887. Where was it first run?

Race 8 – The Dwyer Stakes – Listed

One Mile on the Dirt for Three Year Olds

1. Bravaro: Won last out at Charlestown in a $500k ungraded stakes (83 Beyer). Two back he was solid at Colonial where he battled to the wire, finishing second. Would need to improve.
2. Overtime Rules: Two for two on dirt as he broke his maiden sprinting at Colonial where he went gate to wire (79 Beyer) and then defeated N1X company at Keeneland going seven panels (92 Beyer) on the front end. Prat moves to Sea Strike. Early pace.
3. Stimulate: Broke his maiden for Bill Mott off a year layoff then came back and bested N1X company (92 Beyer) from the Spa’s Wilson mile chute. Last month in the Bourbon Flight Stakes he led but was caught late (93 Beyer). When Mott gets them going in the right direction they tend to keep on rolling. Needs to ration his speed. Using.
4. White Smoke Rising: Comes here off a third in an N2X race going the flat mile at Belmont where he had a clear run at the leaders but only made marginal progress (84 Beyer). Two back in the Amsterdam Stakes he trailed the field for most of the race (89 Beyer). Water is too deep.
5. Stop the Car: No wins from six starts this year and was a distant third in the Ellis Park Derby (86 Beyer) in August and then was last in the Harrod’s Creek (77 Beyer) at Churchill in September. Late runner. Passing
6. Ted Noffey: 2025 Champion two year old is back following issues that has kept him from the track since last Fall. In 2025 he was undefeated and won three stakes including the BC Juvenile (97 Beyer). How sharp will he be? Pletcher only wins at 11% off of year plus long layoffs with only a $0.62 ROI. Hard to figure and hard to trust. Use defensively.
7. Decisive Win: Comes off a subpar performance in the Shared Belief (70 Beyer) where he was fifth. Two best performances were on Lasix – which comes OFF today. Blinkers ON. Passing.
8. Igniter: Won the Ellis Park Derby going the flat mile (93 Beyer) and was then was fifth in the Pennsylvania Derby (90 Beyer). Cuts back to the flat mile which should suit. Hits the board.
9. Sea Strike: Won the restricted Curlin Stakes via a pace pressing trip (102 Beyer). Went to the Travers where he ran well but ten furlongs was too much to handle (95 Beyer). Gets the cutback today. Prat is up. Outside post will allow him to rate off the leaders. Working well. The Pick.
10. Mailata: Parx based gelding who pressed the pace in the Gallant Bob but faded to fourth (79 Beyer). Butch Reid can be dangerous shipping in, but this one appears out of his depth. Passing.

Picks 9-3-8-6

Race 9 – The Mother Goose – Grade II

One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies

1. Cognition: Defeated a MSW field as she wired the field in her first start in over a year (89 Beyer) last month at Keeneland going seven furlongs. Chad is solid second off of long layoffs – winning at a 26% clip. Lasix OFF. Dangerous with a move forward off that win. Win candidate.
2. Answered Prayers: Most recently at Churchill in the Seneca Overnight Stakes she couldn’t run down the winner (82 Beyer). Two back she defeated optional claimers (79 Beyer). Passing.
3. Tap to Open: Was last seen in the Grade I Cotillion where she was wide and finished fourth some nine lengths off of Bodacious Bay (79 Beyer). Was best in her two previous starts where she was up on the pace and won the Cathryn Sophia Stakes at Parx (85 Beyer) and an N1X race (81 Beyer). Should be prominent from the gate. Hits the board.
4. Laken: This is her first start since June and the first for Saffie Joseph. Last out in an optional claiming race she finished third over a sloppy Churchill Downs surface. Saffie does well winning at 23% with layoffs between 120 and 180 days. Lasix OFF. Would need to improve.
5. Iron Orchard: Wired the field two back in the state bred Fleet Indian Stakes as she won by twelve lengths. That led to a start in the Cotillion where she faded to eighth (59 Beyer). Faces a couple of those Cotillion foes again today. Passing.
6. Ati Girl: Broke her maiden in her ninth career start going nine furlongs against elders (87 Beyer). That led Bill Mott to take a shot with her in the Alabama where she finished fourth as she ran well, but that group was too tough (85 Beyer). Underneath play in triples/supers.
7. Bodacious Bay: Saffie Joseph picked up this filly after she placed in the Monmouth Oaks (91 Beyer) where she couldn’t get by My Miss Mo. Saffie then sent her to the Grade 1 Cotillion where she pressed My Miss Mo from the two path and then kicked away to win by three lengths (93 Beyer). Look for a pace pressing trip again. The Pick.
8. Ivy Girl: Finished third in the Lady Secret at Monmouth (75 Beyer) and then was a no-show in the Monmouth Oaks where she trailed the field. Passing.
9. Tahlequah: In her two starts since April she was eased in the Delaware Oaks in June and then was a decent third in the Charlestown Oaks (81 Beyer) in August. Worked last weekend for the first time in a month, which does not inspire much confidence. Would be a surprise.
10. Intrepids Fantasy: Undefeated in three starts, all at Delaware Park, as she won on debut and then won a N1X race by twelve lengths (83 Beyer). She then went wire to wire in a N3X race to win by eight lengths (87 Beyer). Lasix OFF. Faces tougher today. Minor award.
11. Run Wild: Gun Runner filly has improved since Miquel Clement stretched her out as she has won an MSW race (71 Beyer) and an N1X race (83 Beyer). Lasix OFF. Could surprise at a price.

Picks 7-1-3-6

Trivia Answer: The Dwyer was first run at Gravesend Race Track on Coney Island.