Happy Florida Derby Day!

The Florida Derby card is loaded with 10 … yes, count ‘em …10 stakes races! The day is headlined by the $1 million Grade I Florida Derby with the Grade II Florida Oaks for three year old fillies highlighting the undercard. The top two finishers in those races will make the Kentucky Oaks/Derby fields as both award 100-50-25-15-10 points.

Trivia Question: Which filly won the Gulfstream Park Oaks and then went on to win a Triple Crown race?

Race 9 – The Gulfstream Park Oaks – Grade II

One Mile and a Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies

1. Betty’s Pearl: Broke her maiden in her fifth attempt (74 Beyer) after three second place finishes. Lasix OFF. She has a 74 career Beyer top and she’ll need to be much faster to contend against this group. Passing.

2. My Miss Mo: In the six furlong Sandpiper Stakes she was off the pace and stayed that way finishing a well beaten fourth (56 Beyer). Was much better in the Davona Dale last month at 26-1 when she stretched out to a mile as she ran well but was no match for She Be Smooth (81 Beyer). She should be up front and gets the first finish line as well. Hits the board.

3. Nasti Z: Saffie Joeseph trainee runs back after winning a maiden claiming race on debut going five and a half furlongs (67 Beyer). This appears to be too much too fast as she now goes two turns vs. Grade II company. Lasix OFF. Passing.

4. Just Singing: In her first start as a three year old in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes she was at the back of compact field and made a good run at the leaders to hit the board (79 Beyer). This is her second race off a layoff – so an improvement is not out of the question. Blinkers ON. Johnny V stays aboard. Fills out a super.

5. Prom Queen: Broke her maiden last out while going two turns as Castellano let her get comfortable and when he asked her a half mile from home she made a long sustained drive to win by eight lengths (83 Beyer). She appears talented but is a bit untested given she was 4/5 in her sole win. So in my view 9/5 is too short against this group. Lasix OFF. Possible, but she’ll be an underlay.

6. She Be Smooth: Decisively won the Davona Dale as Prat gave this Pletcher trainee a nice inside out trip that led to her winning easily (91 Beyer) by six lengths. That followed a maiden breaking effort on debut for Pletcher as she went wire to wire (78 Beyer) going mile. There are some speedy ones in his field so look for her to stalk and come running when asked. The Pick.

7. Haute Diva: Two back she won the Cash Run Stakes going the flat mile with a stalking trip as she prevailed by a neck (73 Beyer). Came back in the Davona Dale and didn’t fire after drifting wide off the turn (74 Beyer). Working well at Palm Meadow with recent bullets over the dirt and turf courses. But does she want more distance? Passing.

Picks 6-2-5-4

Race 14 – The Florida Derby – Grade I

One Mile and One Furlong on the Dirt for Three Year Olds

1. Albus: Broke his maiden in his third career start for Riley Mott going two turns at Tampa where he pressed the leader and then got clear in the lane (84 Beyer). Lasix OFF. Tough spot.

2. Chief Wallabee: Broke his maiden on debut going seven panels (89 Beyer). Then dove into the deep end and was probably the best in the Fountain of Youth as he had a wide trip and only lost by a neck to Commandment who had the rail open up for him (100 Beyer). The Chief showed he could sit chilly in and amongst horses and move when asked while going two turns in only his second career start. Gets the re-match versus Commandment today. The Pick.

3. Wayne’s Law: Has hit the board in all five career starts including his last start in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa where he finished second to Renegade (86 Beyer) after setting the pace at 48-1 as he ran on for the place money. Know him early.

4. Commandment: Started his three year old season with a win in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes as he drew off late (91 Beyer). Then in the Fountain of Youth he stalked the leaders and the red sea parted at the quarter pole as he got through on rail outrun Chief Wallabee (101 Beyer). Faces his Fountain of Youth rival again today. Three wins on the spin. Irad choses to ride Renegade in the Arkansas Derby rather than staying here, but Prat picks the mount up. Will need a repeat of that effort to win here. Gets a piece.

5. Redland Rebels: Cross-entered in the Arkansas Derby and Biancone has indicated that he will run at Oaklawn. In Tampa Bay Derby he tired late. I don’t see it if he goes here.

6. Nearly: Was fantastic in the Holy Bull as he was up on the early pace and then opened up on the field (98 Beyer). That followed an impressive win vs. a short field in an N1X race (97 Beyer). Should press the pace setters. Firing bullets at Palm Beach Downs coming into his. Contender.

7. Timeless Victory: Longshot comes here after winning an allowance race going two turns over this surface where he pressed the pace the got loose late (78 Beyer). Lasix OFF. Passing.

8. The Puma: Is this Essential Quality colt overrated or underrated? It depends who you ask. What we do know is that he had a bit of a trip in the Sam F. Davis finishing third and then came back in the Tampa Bay Derby and won even though he was five wide (89 Beyer). He repeatedly tried to lug in during the stretch in the Tampa Bay Derby which he needs to correct – but he’s very game. Value play. Use in horizontal and vertical plays.

9. Gregarious: Broke alertly in his debut as he took the lead but finished a distant second to Autobahn (67 Beyer) who then finished last in the Louisiana Derby. Maybe an early thrill.

Picks 2-6-8-4

Trivia Answer: Swiss Skydiver won the 2020 Gulfstream Oaks and then went on to win the COVID delayed Preakness Stakes in October 2020.