Happy Louisiana Derby Day!

Fair Grounds takes the stage today with seven stakes races headlined by the Louisiana Derby and Fair Ground Oaks, both of which award 100-50-25-15-10 Kentucky Oaks/Derby points. The top two finishers in both of these races will earn enough points to make the Kentucky Oaks/Derby fields respectively.

Trivia Question: Surprisingly, only two winners of Louisiana Derby have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby – who was the most recent?

Race 11 – The Fair Grounds Oaks – Grade II

One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt for Three Year Old Fillies

1. Miss Metoyer: Demolished optional claimers at Delta Downs last month as the 2/5 favorite (78 Beyer). Two back she broke on top but faded in a one mile turf race. Draw a line through that one. Faces much tougher today than that Delta Downs field. Lasix comes OFF. Passing.

2. Newtown Pike: Comes off a nice performance in the Martha Washington where she was wide the whole way and still battled to the wire while losing by a head (81 Beyer). She was much the best that day and could have won with a better trip. The long Fair Grounds stretch should help this McKinzie filly who should be closing. Gets a piece.

3. Maximum Offer: Cross entered in Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway but she is expected to run here. Was a close up fourth in the Martha Washington Stakes (80 Beyer) at Oaklawn as she was part of a four horse finish after pressing the pace. That followed a maiden win where he was game from the inside as she won the duel (76 Beyer). Minor award.

4. Luv Your Neighbor: Might scratch and go in the Ashland instead. In the Rachel Alexandra she pressed Bella Ballerina and took the lead at the eight pole only to have Bella come back on the inside and get the win (83 Beyer). Two back in the Silverbulletday she just missed. May be developing a case of “seconditis” with four seconds from six career starts. Gets a slice, again.

5. Bella Ballerina: Undefeated Street Sense filly won the Rachel Alexandra (84 Beyer) as she led most of the way and was strong in final eighth to retake the lead after being passed by Luv Your Neighbor. That was her first start since November when she won the Golden Rod Stakes (80 Beyer). Tactical filly can win with different type of trips – look for her to stalk the early speed. Should move forward in her second race off the layoff. The Pick.

6. Life of Joy: Started her three year old campaign in the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs where she ranged up three wide on the backstretch then dueled with 1/5 shot Zany in the lane but came up short (78 Beyer). Possible piece of it with a move forward.

7. Love and Trust: Cherie DeVaux trainee broke her maiden last month going two turns over this surface as she took the field wire to wire (77 Beyer). Needs to avoid getting cooked in a speed duel – if she does avoid that she’s competitive here. Lasix comes OFF. Gimmick plays.

Picks 5-2-4-3

Race 12 – The Louisiana Derby – Grade II

One Mile and Three Sixteenths on the Dirt for Three Year Olds

1. Pavlovian: Sunland Derby winner just got his nose down at the wire after an extended duel (87 Beyer). That followed a third in the California Chrome Cal Bred Cup where he made a sustained run to get show honors (71 Beyer). Should be on the pace. Passing.

2. Autobahn: Broke his maiden for Brad Cox in his third career start going nine furlongs at Gulfstream (76 Beyer) where he stayed well off a hot pace and then made a sustained run to go by the leaders with ease. Distance suits. Lasix comes OFF. Will be running late. Exotics.

3. Chip Honcho: In the Risen Star he went to the front and ran well but was bested by Paladin in the lane (92 Beyer). Two back in the Lecomte he had a good performance given the outside trip (78 Beyer) while finishing fourth. He could be loose on the lead here, but can he carry his speed for nine and half furlongs? Contender.

4. Universe: In the Risen Star he was outrun while being on the rail, although he did re-rally for a distant fourth (81 Beyer). That followed a clunker in the Smarty Jones (69 Beyer). Passing.

5. Golden Tempo: Curlin colt was impressive two back in winning the Lecomte Stakes where he came from the back of the pack (81 Beyer). In the Risen Star he was off the pace and got up for third after a sustained rally he was no threat to win (84 Beyer). Blinkers ON. Underneath.

6. Spirit of Royal: It took six starts for this colt to break his maiden (66 Beyer). Then they took a shot at in the Southwest and he didn’t show much while finishing ninth (77 Beyer). Passing.

7. Blacksmith: This is the first Baffert entry at Fair Grounds since 2013-14. Broke his maiden in his fifth career start going a mile at Santa Anita as the 3/5 favorite (83 Beyer). Fired a 94 Beyer in December in the Los Al Futurity while finishing second. Reports indicate his most recent workout was not great. It’s Baffert, so you can never count ‘em out. But if this one wins, I lose.

8. Easterly: Broke his maiden for Brad Cox at Gulfstream going eight and half furlongs as he stalked and then went by the leaders even though he was wide the whole way (81 Beyer). Lasix comes OFF. Should be able to work out a stalking trip and the distance suits this Uncle Mo colt. Gets a piece.

9. Emerging Market: Won on debut going two turns at Tampa Bay as he sat mid-pack then outdueled Powershift in the lane (97 Beyer). Impressive performance given that it was his first start as he was patient and then showed lots of heart to battle to the wire. Prat stays aboard for Chad/Klaravich. Lasix comes OFF. He’s a major overlay at the ML 6-1 price, but he will be much shorter than that I would guess 5/2 or so. Nine hole is tricky at Fair Grounds, but in Prat we trust. The Pick.

Picks 9-8-3-5

Trivia Answer: Grindstone (1996) was the last winner of the Louisiana Derby to win the Run for the Roses. Funny Cide was last participant of the Louisiana Derby to win the Kentucky Derby – he finished 3rd in the Louisiana Derby in 2003.