Happy Breeders’ Cup Day!

Nine Grade 1s today at Del Mar and many of these will determine divisional honors. History might be made this afternoon as Rebel’s Romance goes for his third Breeders’ Cup Turf win. Only Goldikova has won the same Breeders’ Cup race three times (the Mile in her case).

Trivia Question: European based horses have won nine of the last ten renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Who is the only North American based horse to win the BC Turf since 2015?

Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Turf– Grade I

One Mile and One Half on the Turf for Three Year Olds and Upward

1. Rebel’s Romance: Seven year old warrior and two time winner of this race runs here off a dominating performance in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic where he took control of the race and no one could make up ground (106 Beyer). Two back he won the Group 1 Preis von Berlin in Germany where he wore down the leader. Loves a firm turf course and is a versatile runner who can be up front or sit off the pace. Thirteen wins from eighteen starts at a mile and a half. If he is close to the 5/2 ML – he is a must play. The Pick.
2. Goliath: Ships in from Germany off of a Group 1 win in the Preis von Baden. In the von Baden he went right to the lead and made every pole a winning one as he held off stalkers in the final quarter mile. Potential pace setter. He’s going to have to hold off some pretty good ones. Too tough of an assignment.
3. Amiloc: Developing three year old has won three of four starts this year and a second in his most recent effort at the Curragh in the Group 1 Irish St. Ledger where he took the lead three furlongs out but couldn’t hold on for the win. Similar trip in the Group 2 King Edward at Royal Ascot as he got clear in the final furlong but this time he held on. Potential with a step forward.
4. Redistricting: Chad Brown trainee won the Monmouth Stakes (102 Beyer) and the United Nations (101 Beyer). Off those wins he went to the Joe Hirsch Turf and was a decent second but was no threat to Rebel’s Romance (101 Beyer). Needs an improvement to contend here.
5. Rebel Red: Sole victory so far in 2025 was in the listed Cherrywood Stakes (100 Beyer). Last out in the Joe Hirsch he trailed the short field and didn’t pass a single horse (94 Beyer). In the Sword Dancer two back he looked like a possible winner in the stretch but was passed in the final jumps by El Cordobes (104 Beyer). Irad in the irons. He has some decent eleven furlong races but does he want twelve furlongs? I am not sure he does. Passing.
6. Wimbledon Hawkeye: Shipped over from Europe to compete in the Nashville Derby at Kentucky Downs (98 Beyer) and handled the field with a sharp turn of foot at the quarter pole and then he held on to win the head bob against Burnham Square. Will need to be faster.

7. Silawi: Took the field gate to wire in the Canadian International in his first North American start as he just held off Tawny Port (100 Beyer). Two back in the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes at Royal Windsor he led the whole way to win graded stakes race. Should be on the pace. Exotics.
8. Minnie Hauk: Daughter of Frankel didn’t start her three year old campaign until May, but she has won five straight including three Group 1s. In the Group 1 Irish Oaks she stalked the pace setters and was best over the final furlong. In the Yorkshire Oaks she only faced three fillies and easily handled the field. She then went to Longchamps for the Arc De Triomphe where she faced the best older turf colts in Europe. In the Arc she was close to the pace, got the clear lead two furlongs from home, but was just run down in the final strides to lose by a head. If she replicates that Arc performance – she is the winner. But that is easier said than done. She is super talented but is a likely underlay off that Arc performance. Win contender.
9. Gold Phoenix: Won his fourth straight Del Mar Handicap where he won a four way photo (99 Beyer). It’s a rare event to win a graded stakes race four times especially on a top level circuit. Finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf year at a big price. Exotics.
10. El Cordobes: Won the Sword Dancer in his first North American start with a nice quickening besting stablemate Nation’s Pride (105 Beyer). That led to the Joe Hirsch Turf (101 Beyer) where he lacked the late punch he showed at the Spa and was no match for Rebel’s Romance. This horse certainly handles American tracks. At 15-1 he offers a lot of value and has the potential for a piece.
11. Rashabar: Finished fourth in the Group 2 Prix Dollar at Longchamp last out where he was in position but was lacked a finishing kick. Two back he had a nice ground saving trip in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville but was left chasing while staying on for second. Went a mile in both the St James at Ascot and Irish 2000 Guineas and while he was OK he was no match for Field of Dreams. Does he want a mile and a half? Don’t see it.
12. Tawny Port: Runs here off a very good Canadian International at Woodbine where he lost a head bob to Silawi as he just couldn’t get by that leader after a big run from way off the pace (100 Beyer). Notwithstanding that effort – he hasn’t won a race in over two years. Potential exotics player.
13. Hill Road: Was on the Triple Crown trail and won the Peter Pan (95 Beyer) with a last to first trip. Didn’t measure up in the Belmont and was a distant third in the Jim Dandy. Was then moved to the turf by Chad Brown and finished third in both the Nashville Derby and Jockey Club Derby (82 Beyer). Today is much tougher than what he found in Kentucky. Don’t see it.
14. Ethical Diamond: Has won both of his most recent efforts. He won at Royal Ascot in June in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes where he sat mid pack and made a sustained run over the last three furlongs. Then in the Ebor Heritage Classic he sat mid-pack and when the running started he was blocked but once in the clear he was much the best winning by open lengths. Passing.

Picks 1-8-10-7

Race 9 – The Breeders’ Cup Classic – Grade I

One Mile and One Quarter On the Dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upward

1. Fierceness: Becomes the ML favorite with the Sovereignty scratch. Second in this race last year and was dominate in the Pacific Classic over this track in August (107 Beyer). Two back he was caught wide and was no threat in the Whitney (100 Beyer). He has shown more maturity this year. In the Pac Classic he broke from the rail post and ducked into the gap as they entered the main track but he still rebounded and to win easily. He’s a bit hard to trust, but if he keeps his head and gets a decent trip he is a strong contender. Using.
2. Baeza: Ran third behind Journalism and Sovereignty in both the Derby and Belmont. Got his Grade 1 win the Pennsylvania Derby where he came from off the pace to win with ease (105 Beyer). Appears to be a step below the best in this field.
3. Nevada Beach: Earned his spot with a win in the Goodwood at Santa Anita where he pressed and then outdueled favorite Full Serrano who was 1/2 (101 Beyer). Two back he won the Los Al Derby in a four horse field with a similar trip to the Goodward (92 Beyer). Passing.
4. Contrary Thinking: Won an N1X at the Big A with a front end score and that led to starts in the Whitney and Jockey Club Gold Cup where he set the pace and faded. He’s a rabbit to ensure a strong pace for Sierra Leone to close into. He’ll be a flash up front.
5. Forever Young: Respectable third in last year’s Classic (109 Beyer). Started the year with a good third in the Dubai World Cup and then was given a six month break. Off that break he won in Japan a month ago. Hard to judge what the Japanese horses are facing in their home country. But this one is very good and could contend. Gimmicks play.
6. Sovereignty: SCRATCHED He spiked a fever this week and unfortunately has been scratched. He will most certainly be the three year old Champion and may still be Horse of the Year even though he isn’t running in the Classic.
7. Sierra Leone: Two back he was fantastic in the Whitney (109 Beyer) as he went from last to first as circled the field with his killer closing kick. Last out he made his normal run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but couldn’t catch Antiquarian (106 Beyer) in a roughly run race. He wasn’t sharp earlier this year but has improved as his four year old continued. Underneath.
8. Mindframe: Has had a good 2025 with three straight wins including a narrow win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (99 Beyer), and a strong performance in the Stephen Foster where he defeated Sierra Leone (105 Beyer). In his most recent race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Irad Ortiz was unseated do to interference at the start of the race. As a result he is a bit under the radar and will have value given that he didn’t have a true prep race. At his best he is right there. Irad retains the mount. Value play. The Pick.
9. Journalism: Has had a strong three year old season with seconds in the Kentucky Derby (102 Beyer), the Belmont (105 Beyer) and a spectacular Preakness win where he closed from well out of it. He’ll have to show he can turn the tables on Sovereignty. Don’t lose track that he won the Haskell (101 Beyer) and was second to Fierceness in the Pac Classic over this track. Underneath.
10. Antiquarian: Was fantastic in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (108 Beyer) where he stalked Phileas Fogg, got to the lead and then held off a closing Sierra Leone to get the win. That flipped the script from the Suburban where he was unable to run down Phileas Fogg (104 Beyer). Loves the ten furlongs and is in great form, but last time was the time.

Picks 8-1-7-9

Trivia Question: Bricks and Mortar won the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Turf at Santa Anita for Chad Brown with Irad Ortiz in the irons.