#1 VIRGINIA MINSTREL has won three in a row in 2010 and enters this race as the hottest in the field for a trainer, Julie Gomena, who is 6 of 7 this year. This son of Pleasant Tap broke his maiden over the hurdles in March then took a N1X at Colonial in May before winning a 12 furlong event on the flat 18 days ago. He seems to have no issue with the distance and should be a strong late presence. #4 MABOU had a huge lead in this event last year but left the course. Since then he’s 3 for 3 and a drop in class certainly enabled him to turn things around. There’s some other speed in here, so he might not get the easy lead he usually seeks, but trainer Tom Voss has hit at a 15% clip with jumpers at the Spa over the last five years. #2 NATIONBUILDER is another starting for a strong barn when it comes to the hurdles at the Spa as Jonathan Sheppard is 20% with a $1.63 ROI. This gelding scored a stakes win in April and recently worked a sharp five furlongs, so he’ll be in position to capitalize if the expected hot pace develops.

#5 SKY HOSOYA is a 2^nd timer from the barn of trainer Todd Pletcher who is making the biggest class drop in horse racing. Pletcher also adds blinkers to this daughter of Bluegrass Cat and he’s 30% with 2^nd timers dropping from MSW in for a tag adding the hood. This gal ought to have a bit more speed out of the gate and 5.5 furlong races often go to the entrant with the most speed. Look for her to come out swinging. #6 BETTER SAFE is by a good win early sire as progeny of Safe in the USA have won their debuts 4 of 21 times. This trainer and jockey scored on Wednesday afternoon with a 14-1 shot on the Spa main track and trainer Roy Lerman is 2-12 with 2YO debaters over the last five years, good for a $4.26 ROI. The worktab is a bit light, but it would be far from surprising for this gal to run a big race. #3 R BLING is from the solid win early barn of Wesley Ward and has worked well of late for her debut. This filly’s dam won her debut and her sire, Sky Mesa, has performed well at stud as 17 of his 123 starters scored at first asking. Ward is only 1 of his last 8 with 2YO maiden claimers at Saratoga and his barn has been a bit cold at this meet so far (0-4) so this gal may be one you try to avoid in the early Pick 4.

#4 VISION D’AMOUR is one of five starters on this program for trainer Bill Mott, who’ll be celebrating his birthday. Mott on his birthday has been an angle for years and he’s running this guy at a realistic level after three starts at the MSW level on both turf and dirt. This guy’s dam was kin to dirt winners Mille Feville, Noisette, and Roi Maudit, so he seems overdue to break through and the tag could make the difference. In addition, Mott is 34% with $2.95 with MSW to maiden claiming droppers on the dirt over the last five years. No barn on the grounds is hotter than that of Chad Brown, who has #3 HIGH STAKES PLAYER in here, making the same move as the top pick. He fared poorly against MSW runners recently and now makes the ever important drop in class. Based on his pedigree, you’d think 9fs will hit him right between the eyes and he looked to be a bit more relaxed horse without blinkers, so expect him to lay back and make one run this afternoon. Javier Castellano won three times for this barn over the weekend and is currently the leading rider at the meet. #6 TINIAN ISLAND is going 2^nd off a short layoff and stretching out for trainer Mike Hushion. The fact that this guy chased a hot pace leads you to believe he’ll be on the engine today and speed always plays well at 9fs on the main track at Saratoga.

As tempting as it is to shop around in this field, it appears as if #2 DEVIL BY DESIGN is the one to beat, provided she can revert to the form she held prior to her poor Bed O’ Roses effort. She had some trouble at the start last time out and wound up racing wide while pressing the red-hot pace. Now going 3^rd off a layoff, this daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is facing significantly softer foes and should be able to stalk the pace intently from the start. Note who she edged in her last Saratoga effort back in August 2009. #7 UNFORGOTTEN is another who has faced better foes for quite some time and she’s now cutting back for trainer Dallas Stewart. Here lone win in the last two years came over a sloppy track at Delta and that’s the main reason why she’s very hard to trust for the top spot. If the pace gets hot in here, and it should be solid given the presence of #6 LADY ALEXANDER, then things could unfold perfectly for this daughter of Northern Afleet. #1 DECELERATOR is facing elders today but is a stakes winner this year, so it’s probably not that big a class jump. The Eight Belles was over her head and trainer D. Wayne Lukas now seems to have her in a legitimate spot. Her two Saratoga efforts in 2009 left a lot to be desired but jockey Calvin Borel should be able to sit patiently on the rail and wait for the right time.

The favorites look rather beatable in this turf marathon and that led me to #3 MY ELUSIVE DREAM, who is returning off a short layoff for trainer David Duggan. Over the last five years, Duggan has had three turf winners at Saratoga and they’ve paid $47.60, $47.00, and $26.60, so you can definitely tab his runners at a price. This gal had a horrible trip last time out as she made a wide move around the far turn while attempting to move into a very moderate pace. She understandably tired late and now returns from the freshening with three works in the interim. Don’t be surprised if she’s involved from the start. #6 COCKTAIL HOUR has been a bit of a disappointment as she has yet to move forward with experience despite being a half to multiple graded stakes winning turfer Film Maker. This will be her first try going long and Film Maker excelled in marathons, so that could be the needed switch. Jockey Javier Castellano has also done very well for this barn, specifically in 2010 as they’re 6-9 together. #2 DYANI is going to go off favored in here but is kind of a plodder with no early speed. She has narrowly missed twice in a row, including last time out against males and is another making her first start at today’s marathon distance. If she runs back to her last two then she can be a strong late presence under Julien Leparoux.

#8 AWESOME PREACHER is switching back to dirt for trainer Billy Badgett and the turf to dirt move with claimers has been a good one for him over the last five years. During that time period he’s hit at a rate of 32% with a $2.14 ROI. This colt was forced to chase the pace last time out when multiple gate scratches reduced the field to five in that 25k N2L claimer. He’s at his best when he can rate just off the pace and he’s done his best work on fast dirt, so the dry conditions today should help his chances. #11 REDWOOD FEVER is another going turf to dirt for a barn that has struck at a solid rate with those types. This guy has faced better since breaking his maiden at Laurel in March and trainer Seth Benzel initially had this guy entered for 25k last week. This spot is quite a bit softer even though he’s once again saddled with the outside post. Look for him to be in the mix late if the expected pace duel develops. #1 FIRE THE BULLET broke his maiden last time out against a soft field at Belmont but it was an authoritative score. This trainer and jockey missed in a N2L claimer on Wednesday and have quietly done well together (18%, $2.11) since the beginning of 2009. He should be able to save some ground from the inside while off the early pace.

#4 SYSTEM READY is a 2^nd timer stretching out and switching to turf for trainer Todd Pletcher, who has won with 2YOs making their first start on turf at Saratoga at a rate of 21% with a $2.25 ROI. This gal did very little running in her debut on the Jersey Shore but has come back to work twice but faces males this afternoon. Her sire, More Than Ready, gets turf winners at a rate of 15% and this gal’s dam, Patty Seattle, was a 2x turf winner in her 20 race career. She was also kin to Aunt Henny, a stakes winning turfer in her day. Look for better things from this filly on the green, and she’ll need it facing the opposite gender. #7 PEB HUGHES is the first of Henny Hughes’ progeny to try turf and this guy’s damside pedigree includes Cherokee Artist, a turf winner for trainer Graham Motion. How Henny Hughes foals will do on the weeds is a guessing game but this guy is from a good barn, has an experience edge and is training forwardly, which means he can certainly get the job done. #1 BONAROO is a well-bred firster as he’s kin to Lookalike, a multiple turf winner, and is by Dynaformer, a 14% turf sire. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is 0 for his last 18 with firsters on the turf but this guy is facing an awfully soft group and needn’t be much to sit on the rail and make one run to contend at a price.

#6 BEAU CHOIX was a handy winner of the James Murphy on the Preakness undercard back in May and now returns from a short layoff for trainer Barclay Tagg. This guy has been beaten by a couple of different horses in this field in the past but circumstances dictated those outcomes. Like many other horses, this guy ran better when ridden by jockey Javier Castellano and he’s back on board today with a steady and impressive series of workouts showing prominently for this son of Elusive Quality. #8 LONESOME STREET is one of three in here coming in off of the Oliver at Indiana Downs late last month. This guy raced close to the hot pace and wound up weakening late as a scrum took place in mid-stretch. This son of Broken Vow has been at his best when able to get involved in the early pace and with one confirmed speedster to his inside, he’ll be in the watchdog role from the start. It’s a tad disconcerting that this barn’s main man is riding the colt to his left but this guy has had numerous different riders in his career. #1 OUR DOUGLAS finished 2^nd in the aforementioned Oliver but was subsequently disqualified for interference in mid-stretch. This son of Stormy Atlantic came into the Jefferson Cup at Churchill as an up and coming graded stakes horse but he didn’t do much running that day and is once again where he belongs class-wise. His trainer is 2-2 at the young meet and the rail draw should give hima good opportunity to save ground from the word “go.”

As has been said here before, some horses seem to run better for jockey Javier Castellano and #4 WILD AWAKE looks to be one of those as her last win came with him aboard. Otherwise, she has had serious problems closing the deal with nine 2^nd or 3^rd place finishes in her 13 race career. She attempted to rally into a negative pace setup last time out on the Belmont inner turf course as she fell far behind a dull early tempo. It appears as if the early tempo in here will be solid, so look for her late with what we can only hope to be a trouble free trip. #2 GREAT GRACIE DANE broke her maiden on the Aqueduct lawn last fall then took a N1X that had been taken off the turf in her first start of 2010. Since then trainer Derek Ryan has tried her in a couple of stakes races on the Jersey Shore, so she’s getting serious class relief in this spot. The inside post should enable her to save some ground and it seems pretty clear she’s better than her Boilign Springs 10^th place finish. #10 LOVELY PROMISE beat the top pick three back at the Big A then took a N3L at Belmont before tiring after enduring a wide trip against starter allowance foes last time out. Trainer Dominick Schettino started two turfers last weekend and both landed in the exacta, so his strong 2010 has continued. The post is problematic with this gal but Rajiv Maragh is very astute with grassers and her price will facilitate taking a chance with this daughter of Judge T C.

#1 DEVON ROCK was an impressive maiden winner on the Belmont undercard and that effort was good enough for trainer Jimmy Jerkens to try him in the Choice at Monmouth Park earlier this month. He chased the loose leader and wound up weakening in the stretch drive. Jerkens now cuts him back to a mile and he’ll be re-united with jockey Javier Castellano, with whom he scored the maiden win two starts back. His natural speed should keep him in the mix from the start. #5 CHEROKEE SPEED lacks the killer instinct needed to win a race but gets a rider change today in his first start off a brief layoff. He has enough speed to stay within range from the outset and that’s definitely going to help him along the way. If the top pick stubs his toe then this guy will be in position to capitalize. #6 PRETTY BOY FREUD is going 3^rd off a layoff and exits his turf debut, where he rallied while wide to pick up the show dough. Trainer Leo O’Brien tried numerous times to get this guy on the weeds but wasn’t able to do so until his most recent outing. A move forward could put him in the mix for a minor award.

Saratoga 2010 Stats: 48-17-3-10 178.10 Best Bet Stats: 4-2-0-1 6.70