Jeanne Wood's Derby Dozen

April 27th 2010

By Jeanne Wood

Lookin at Lucky
Awesome Act
Ice Box
Super Saver
Sidney’s Candy
Mission Impazible
Jackson Bend
Dublin
Paddy O’Prado
Noble’s Promise
Line of David
Stately Victor

On Sunday morning it was announced that for the second consecutive year, the likely Derby favorite would not compete. Eskendereya was declared out of contention with some swelling in a leg. On Monday it was announced that Rule wouldn’t start either. The Todd Pletcher trained filly Devil May Care however now will head to the Derby rather than the Oaks.

It appears as if there will be a contested pace and I am looking for horses that have shown the ability to rate and close. I also want to see evidence of some nimbleness of foot and a willingness to stay inside if need be. Lookin at Lucky has shown all of these qualities and the only problem I have with him is that his odds were cut in half by the defection of Eskendereya. By all accounts the son of Smart Strike has trained beautifully since arriving in Kentucky and Bob Baffert clearly knows how to win Derbies.

Awesome Act may be in a far better position to “get cover” behind horses and relax than he was in the short field in the Wood Memorial. The short and spread out field left him no place to tuck in and await the signal from Julien Leparoux that it was time to go. The result was a somewhat rank effort. Awesome Act gets a bit of slack for having thrown a shoe as he broke from the gate.

Ice Box has proven a willing closer and in the Florida Derby he showed that he could pass horses inside as well as out. As he began his sustained rally, he split horses before moving outside and into the clear. The long Derby stretch will suit him, but Jose Lezcano will have to time it perfectly.

Once beyond the top 3, thereare any number of reasons to like certain horses. If you are looking for mud runners longshot Backtalk is a perfect 2 for 2 on wet tracks (as well as 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs.) Other runners with wins on less than dry tracks are Discreetly Mine, and Super Saver who won the Ky Jockey Club Stakes here last fall. Mud loving breeding abounds in American Lion, Awesome Act, Endorsement, Line of David, Noble’s Promise and Super Saver.

Backtalk and Super Saver have both won at Churchill. Mission Impazible was 3^rd in the KY Juvenile last year at Churchill.

Apart from Calvin Borel, the Derby has not been a race where local riders shine. For the most part, the Derby colts attract the leading riders from NY and Southern California, with a smattering of Midwest based riders. Terry Thompson is one of the few Midwest mainstays to have a mount. He’ll ride Dublin for D. Wayne Lukas. Last year’s winner Calvin Borel returns to ride Super Saver. Kent Desormeaux who scored on Big Brown two years ago has the mount on Paddy O’Prado this year. It was announced on Monday that Ramon Dominquez will take the call on Homeboykris for Rick Dutrow. Robby Albarado has long been at home at Churchill and will ride Endorsement for Shannon Ritter, who saddles her first Derby runner.

In the last decade, several Derbies have gone to trainers with little or no Derby experience. Neil Drysdale, Barclay Tagg, John Service, Rick Dutrow were all well known to horseplayers but not usually associated with winning big 3yo races. Chip Wooley was unknown at this time last year to most horseplayers, unless they played New Mexico regularly. Much has been made of Todd Pletcher’s winless streak in the Derby and unless there is a surprise this Saturday it may well continue in the absence of Eskendereya. In truth, Pletcher has not really gone to the Derby that well armed and his better finishes have been supplied by some of his longest shots. Bob Baffert, Wayne Lukas and Nick Zito have accounted for 8 of the last 20 Derbies and all are represented on Saturday. John Sadler has been a big story this winter and spring winning 5 preps with Sidney’s Candy, Line of David and Hurricane Ike. (The latter won’t start on Saturday, but he took last weekend’s Cliff Edge Derby Trial.) Sadler is based in California and sends out two very speedy colts. Jeremy Noseda may not be a familiar name to casual fans but the British based trainer has won major US races like the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with Wilko. He sends out Awesome Act. Shannon Ritter was an assistant to Elliott Walden and handled Victory Gallop. Ritter was Victory Gallop’s exercise rider and saw him run second to Real Quiet in the Derby before upending Real Quiet’s Triple Crown hopes on the wire at Belmont Park 5 weeks later.